In a text that can be read as obvious, hypocritical and necessary at the same time, the five nuclear powers with seats on the United Nations Security Council have released a manifesto pledging not to wage war with atomic weapons as tensions between Russia and NATO grow in Europe.
“We declare that there can be no victors in a nuclear war, which must never be started”, says the text, adding that “as long as they exist”, bombs “should only serve as a defensive means of deterrence against aggression and prevention of war” .
The document is signed by the United States, Russia, China, United Kingdom and France, the five powers with voting and veto powers in the main instance of the UN (United Nations Organization). Not by chance, the countries that won the Second World War and had nuclear capability acquired during the Cold War.
The obviousness of the text has been known since the US and the then Soviet Union began to stack bombs in the 1950s. A war with thermonuclear weapons, even on a small scale, is an existential threat to humanity — in a global version, it would make civilization as we know it unfeasible.
Therefore, nothing more natural than reaffirming that war is illogical. Hypocrite, critics will point out, because it maintains the status quo and prestige of the great powers: there are four other countries with the bomb, Israel, North Korea, India and Pakistan, and significantly none of them is a signatory of the NPT (Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty ).
The 1968 text enthroned the five members of the Security Council as nuclear states for having exploded their warheads until 1967. They are part of the NPT under unique conditions, while the other 186 adhering countries theoretically renounce the most destructive technology ever created.
At the same time, the text emerges at a time when there is open talk in Europe of the risk of a confrontation between Russia and NATO (US-led military alliance) forces due to the impasse on the borders of Ukraine.
Vladimir Putin’s government has concentrated more than 100,000 men in the region to try to force a permanent solution that prevents the neighboring country from joining NATO, threatening its geopolitical position.
Having already annexed Crimea and fomented civil war in eastern Ukraine to that end in 2014, after the pro-Moscow government was toppled in Kiev, the US accused the Kremlin of preparing an invasion.
Tension has dragged on since November, and talks to discuss the terms of a Putin ultimatum, filled with unenforceable demands on the West, are expected to begin in the next few days. The Russian has already spoken twice with the American Joe Biden about the issue.
Among the exchanges of indictment, there is the Russian fear that intermediate-range nuclear weapons, which had been banned in Europe in a treaty torn by the US in 2019, will be installed near its territory. And the Kremlin’s threat to do the same.
With that, the manifest gains urgency. It was supposed to be read at the opening of the tenth review conference of the TNP, which would start this Tuesday (4) in New York, but which was probably postponed to August due to the spread of the omicron variant of the new coronavirus.
In the text, the powers reaffirm their commitment to the central objective of the NPT, which is to reduce the risks of atomic weapons proliferation around the world. But the focus on the war itself draws attention, as it brings materiality to a ghost that had been forgotten after the end of the Soviet Union 30 years ago.
“It is progress, even if only declaratory. It advocates the defensive purpose, which is positive, but says that they will play this role while they exist. It is a sign that they do not intend to get rid of them,” stated Brazilian ambassador Sérgio Duarte, formerly UN High Representative for Disarmament Affairs.
President of Pugwash, the 1995 Nobel Peace Prize winner for its work on non-proliferation, Duarte says the promises are “far below” the expectations of countries that have pledged to have no nuclear weapons by the NPT.
There are new questions posed. China is a power with new capabilities for the use of its weapons, such as hypersonic missiles and the fact that it operates the so-called nuclear triad: it can drop its bombs from silos, submarines and bombers, expanding the possibilities of retaliation in case of war .
The increase in that musculature has not yet come in terms of weapons stockpiles, although the US talks of an unconfirmed Chinese plan to triple the arsenal this decade. There are now, according to the Federation of American Scientists, one of the industry’s beacons, 320 Chinese warheads — none for ready use.
Russians already have 1,600 strategic bombs (for obliterating large military targets or cities) ready to use, plus 2,897 in reserve. Americans, 1,650 strategic and 100 tactics (for punctual actions) ready, plus 1,950 in reserve.
French operate 280 strategic weapons ready for use and stock 10; the British already have 120 of their 225 bombs on hand. Pakistanis stockpile 165 warheads and their Indian rivals 160. Israel, which is ambiguous about its well-known arsenal, the federation says has 90 warheads, and North Korea perhaps half that.
There is also an ongoing strategic movement of rapprochement between Moscow and Beijing, despite historical misgivings, driven by Cold War 2.0 played by Washington against the Chinese. Leader Xi Jinping has already spoken of the two countries’ joint defense against the West.
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