By Antonis Anzoletou

With more than 1.5 million homeless since the deadly earthquake o Tayyip Erdogan he stuck to the end in his decision to lead his country to the May 14 elections. Anger is overflowing and as much as he has talked about quick recovery of the affected the situation requires quick reflexes and excellent operation of the mechanism. Possibly he sees that as time goes on things will become even more difficult, as it is not easy to fulfill what he has promised. After such an earthquake, after all, even a very well-organized state is doubtful whether it would be able to cope immediately and sufficiently. The aid of five billion euros from Saudi Arabia is a positive development.

It is certain that to a large extent he had also invested in the opposition’s incomprehension, however, the “six” finally reached a “Solomontian solution”, even with difficulty. The “cheese” in its members “National Alliance” has been given, since in the event of the formation of a government, all partners will take over from a ministry or even the vice-presidency with the main objective of changing the Constitution and the way of governance of Turkey to a strengthened parliamentary democracy. The declared objectives include the independence of the Central Bank.

Polls show that Tayyip Erdogan maintains his electoral base, despite the national tragedy caused by the earthquake. It will also be very difficult to lose the initiative of movements, as it is a “game” that knows it very well. He has in his possession, despite the decay caused by power after 21 consecutive years, powerful cards mainly in the public sector. Economic analyzes that predicted inflation in Turkey to remain at the highest levels worldwide – and the 2023 – have now taken second place. The Turkish people are having a hard time, the lira has lost over 30% of its value, but now a large part of the country is also homeless. The bet is whether he will be able to rally the world around the “flag” by showing a good face and moving quickly to rebuild the damaged areas.

The rival awe, o Kemal Kilicdaroglu, may have been credited with the successes in the municipalities of Istanbul and Ankara, but he does not seem to have convinced analysts that he can impose himself on the current president. He does not have the displacement of Erdogan and only 40% of public opinion declares that he is happy with his action as the official opposition leader. He is already old (71 years old) and for this reason it was estimated that it would be useful to join the “frame” next to him, as future vice presidents, Ekrem Imamoglu and Mansour Yavas. The National Alliance is looking for a way to gain momentum in the short time left until the elections. There are many who estimate that if the head of the Republican People’s Party stepped back and “gave way to the youth” the chances of Erdoğan’s defeat would be greater. The pro-Kurdish party HDP announced that it might support the head of the “six” and not run its own candidate in the elections. This will be a very negative development for the Justice and Development party.

Erdogan has never lost since 2002. And he will mobilize all his forces in order to overthrow the alliance that is in front of him. Although nothing can be considered certain with the Turkish president, he has declared that he will be a candidate for the last time. Will the current president’s “last dance” on the political stage be accompanied by a victory? It is a five-year term in which he wants to make his mark, and appealing to voter sentiment is expected to be one of his weapons. He came to power in the wake of the 1999 earthquake and has no intention of leaving in the wake of another powerful earthquake in 2023.