A year after the Capitol invasion, 727 Americans were indicted by the US government for joining the violence. Fewer than 30 have received sentences with relatively light prison terms, when considering the punitive context of the post-9/11 fight against terrorism. But there is no rigor applied by the Department of Justice that discourages the defense of political violence.
Today, 21 million Americans — 8% of the adult population —, according to a survey led by political scientist Robert Pape of the University of Chicago, share two convictions: Joe Biden stole the 2020 election and it is justifiable to commit violent acts to restore the presidency of Donald Trump.
Weeks after January 6, the researcher began poring over the profiles of the first group of arrested intruders, and the data accumulated as the FBI identified and detained new troublemakers — in part, with the help of allegations from one of the most documented crimes in US history.
The conclusions are surprising. The study reveals right-wing radicals with an average age of 42, well employed and socially adjusted. Six out of seven of those arrested have no affiliation with so-called ideological fringe groups, like the neo-Nazis who marched in Charlottesville, Virginia, in 2017.
“It would be necessary to go back to the 1920s, when the [organização racista] Ku Klux Klan has gone from a few thousand to 6 million members in four years to find a comparable normalization of violence in society,” he tells leaf Pape, over the phone. This week he publishes the results of the new phase of his survey, which includes a survey of Americans whose demographic profile matches that of the country’s 258 million adults. The margin of error is 2.9 percentage points.
“We demonstrate that the radical sentiment witnessed in the Capitol invasion is now a ‘mainstream’ phenomenon in the US,” explains the scholar. “More than half of the invaders are small businessmen, ‘white collar’ [trabalhadores não braçais, de funções administrativas]. There are doctors, managers, architects.”
The profile drawn by the insurgents confirms a mistake propagated in the US after the surprise with Trump’s victory in 2016: that economic anguish explained the election of a populist demagogue.
Skin color, on the other hand, appears as a common denominator — both among inmates and among adults consulted in the University of Chicago research group. “Among the 21 million adults who justify political violence”, says Pape, “75% fear the so-called Great Replacement”, a theory that emerged in France at the beginning of the 20th century, according to which there would be a risk of extinction of white Europeans, exchanged by immigrants from Africa and the Middle East. Today the phrase is often used as a racist rattle by Fox News anchors and Trump’s elected allies across the country.
“Over 50% of the Capitol invaders come from towns with two characteristics: they gave victory to Joe Biden [em 2020] and they are among those who have lost the most white residents,” says Pape.
From the beginning, the Chicago poll sought to look ahead, especially in order to assess how the US will enter a new election primary season, starting in March. In November, Americans elect all 435 members of Congress, 34 of 100 members of the Senate, 36 governors of 50 states, members of 44 state assemblies and 30 state attorneys.
Pape says he is concerned about the political tension that could affect the election. “It is crucial that political and community leaders start a dialogue before the primaries, using the information we have now. Police power exists to arrest those who commit a violent act. The FBI cannot arrest those who support or defend violence. Radicalization is already there. out in society.”
The professor also studied the information diet of those who regard Trump as the legitimate president — and the findings stand out. According to the survey, 42% of respondents are informed by Fox News, in addition to Newsmax and One America News, cable channels to the right of the ratings leader.
However, 32% say they get information from CNN and NPR, public radio. “Only 20% declared to obtain information through Facebook or Twitter. Those who obtain information through social networks considered to be more radical, such as Telegram, are a derisory minority.” For Pape, the numbers reinforce the notion that radicalization is also “mainstream” — there’s nothing in CNN or NPR journalism that inspires an invasion of Capitol Hill.
Throughout the interview, Pape did not use the terms “Republicans” or “Democrats” — even though Congress is investigating the participation of elected members (all Republicans) and Trump’s White House in planning and inciting the January 6 violence. Asked if there is an example, in recent history, of one of the two great American parties advocating violence to capture or maintain power, he says that, so far, he has not known cases of defense of electoral violence in the Democratic Party.
“But remember, the legend came out victorious in 2020. Violence from the left should also be a concern,” says Pape, who directs the Chicago Project on Security and Threats at the university.
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