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Berlusconi returns to the scene in Italy with an eye on the Presidency

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Oh really? Silvio Berlusconi? Yes, the former head of government of Italy, with his political career tainted by several scandals and legal proceedings, wants to try one more time. At the age of 85, he will run for the highest post in the Italian Executive: he wants to become president of the country. The first round of elections was scheduled for January 24.

“I believe that Silvio Berlusconi can be useful to the country,” said of himself the conservative veteran, who in Italy is called The Knight (“The Knight”): “I will not give up and do what my country needs.” In early December 2021, the politician, who was Prime Minister of Italy four times, sent an image of his face stretched out with plastic surgery to deputies in parliament in Rome, accompanied by a collection of his most beautiful speeches.

In Italy, the action was interpreted as a kick-off for a discreet presidential election campaign. Many observers in the various debate programs on Italian TV consider that the Knight, who was convicted of tax evasion, has only minimal chances.

But he is supported by right-wing populists Matteo Salvini and Giorgia Meloni, leader of the nationalist right-wing Brothers of Italy. Before the holiday season, she took a clear stand: “We want a patriot. Berlusconi is one. Draghi is not.”

Does Draghi want to be president or not?

When quoting Mario Draghi, Meloni talks about the candidate who is probably more likely to get the post. The current prime minister, who heads a successful and surprisingly stable technocratic government, has prestige both in Italy and in Europe.

The but: he still hasn’t declared himself a candidate. In Italy, self-candidate for the presidency is taboo, only Berlusconi had no problem with that. The presidency ambitions of the 74-year-old Draghi are well known, but the government would likely implode before long without the leadership of the former president of the European Central Bank (ECB).

In Parliament, the government is supported by an atypical unified national coalition, made up of all the parties in the country – with the exception of Giorgia Meloni’s Italian Brothers.

That majority would disintegrate, believes Lutz Klinkhammer, an expert on Italian affairs at the German Historical Institute in Rome. According to the scholar, the government is mainly in power to sensibly distribute the 200 billion euros (about R$ 1.3 trillion) of the coronavirus pandemic restructuring fund granted by the European Union to the country.

“Without the money from Brussels, this grand coalition would not have been formed. And, in fact, it is lame. We know that. That’s why I see great difficulties. I don’t believe in the stability of this government if Draghi is elected president.”

The consequence could be the holding of new elections, which may result in a right-wing populist and Eurosceptic government. But if Italy’s economic recovery were to falter after the pandemic, it would inevitably affect other EU member states.

“Elections are more than a ritual”

That’s why Enrico Letta, leader of Italy’s Social Democrats, believes that Draghi is much better off staying at the head of government until the end of the current legislature, in early 2023, finalizing his reform program.

“Italy remains the weakest member of the eurozone, which means that Italian politics and the decision-makers behind it will be decisive for the survival and well-being of the EU for years to come,” wrote Nouriel Roubini, economist and financial consultant from New York, and Brunello Rosa, from the Bocconi University of Economics, Milan, in a joint opinion article for the social democratic magazine Project Syndicate, entitled “Why the election in Italy matters”.

“If populist parties return to power due to already high debts and deficits, Italy’s membership of the euro zone could be called into question. Italian is anything but a simple ritual without major consequences.

Unlike the president in Germany, whose role is more symbolic despite the designation of head of state, the president of Italy has decisive influence during political crises. He can appoint the head of government and is the one who approves the ministers. In addition, it has the power to dissolve Parliament.

With these rights, the current holder of the post, Sergio Mattarella, installed his friend Mario Draghi as prime minister a year ago, ending a government crisis.

It could be that Draghi wants to fill this post as master handler for the next seven years. With a prime minister he likes, he could run Italy for a long time.

But it is unclear whether the parliament that will be elected in the coming months would play the game. On the subject, in a recent press conference, Draghi only commented that he is an experienced servant of his State. “My own fate doesn’t matter.”

“It’s like choosing the Pope”

It is also unclear how majorities will be in the 1,009-delegate body that on January 24 decides who will be the new president. Due to its complex rules, expert Klinkhammer compares the Italian president’s electoral process to the election of another high-profile office that takes place in Rome.

“It’s like choosing the pope. Most of the people’s representatives need to find the most worthy person for the position in this conclave”, explains the researcher at the German Historical Institute.

There are no voting ballots with printed names of candidates. Every deputy, senator, or delegate from a region must write down a full name by hand. Theoretically, therefore, any name can be written.

If no one achieves a two-thirds majority in the first three rounds, the following rounds can be won simply with an absolute majority – that is, half the votes plus one.

The process may take time. In 1972, for example, it took 23 rounds for candidate Giovanni Leone to obtain a majority. Seven years ago, Sergio Mattarella needed four shifts.

On the first weekend in January, representatives of the cultural sector publicly demanded an end to the semi-corrupt friendly exchange of positions between senior politicians, and nominated two candidates: Justice Minister Marta Cartabia and her former colleague Paola Severino.

They probably have the same minimal odds as Silvio Berlusconi. However, as the British magazine The Economist wrote of Italian domestic politics: “It’s unlikely. But stranger things have happened.”

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EuropeEuropean UnionItalyleafRomaSilvio Berlusconi

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