Despite the war and sanctions, the Russian economy will endure in 2023, according to the forecasts announced today by the International Monetary Fund, which expects that growth in Russia it will rise to 0.7% this yeara rate well above the 0.4% it forecast three months ago.

In general, the results of the Russian economy appear improved compared to the IMF’s previous report on the outlook for the world economy. While Russia’s GDP was initially expected to contract strongly in 2022, at 6%, the year ended with a recession of “only” 2.1%. For 2023, the situation looks even better: last October the IMF forecast a recession of 2.3% but in January it revised upwards, predicting marginal growth of 0.3%. Now, in the report released on the occasion of the spring meetings of the IMF and the World Bank, growth is forecast to rise to 0.7% this year.

“Russia managed to maintain momentum (to 2022) by implementing strong fiscal measures last year, which we expect to continue this year,” explained IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Guerrenza in a telephone press conference he gave.

“I think Russia used the fiscal space it had to prop up its economy. But a significant portion of that spending is actually military spending.”said Petia Koeva Brooks, deputy director of the IMF’s research division.

The deficit is expected to widen in 2023 to 6.2%. “It’s too big, based on Russian data,” commented a representative of the Fund. The current account surplus is expected to narrow to 3.6% of GDP from 10.3% in 2022.

In the long run, however, the shock of the war in Ukraine will become apparent, Gurensa assured: “By 2027, we expect the Russian economy to be 7 percent smaller than it would be without the war.”