For Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, next month’s election is of “huge historical significance” as it coincides with the 100th anniversary of the establishment of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk’s secular state and democracy, which Erdogan wants to abolish.

As Politico comments today, if Erdogan wins, “he will have the opportunity to put even more of his stamp on the trajectory of the geostrategically important country of 85 million people.”

The May 14 vote is expected to be the most intense race of Erdogan’s 20-year rule – as the country struggles with years of economic mismanagement, as well as the aftermath of a devastating earthquake.

The Turkish president has a political opponent, Kemal Kilinsaroglu – the “Turkish Gandhi” as he is nicknamed – who has a lead according to opinion polls so far.

Read about: Elections in Turkey: Duel between Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu in the polls

But Erdogan “is a hardened election fighter who has the full power of the state and its institutions,” writes Politico.

The West fears that – in the event of victory – Erdogan “will push towards an increasingly religiously conservative model, with the greatest political powers concentrated around him”.

Crucial elections for security in Europe

Whoever is elected will determine Turkey’s role in the NATO alliance, the country’s relationship with the US, the EU and Russia, immigration policy, Ankara’s role in the war in Ukraine and how it handles tensions in the East Mediterranean.

“Turkey’s opposition – i.e. Kilinsaroglou – is convinced that it can unfreeze the European Union accession talks, which have been deadlocked since 2018 due to the country’s democratic backsliding, by introducing liberalizing reforms regarding the rule of law, the freedoms of media and the depoliticization of the judicial system,” the article states.

But “even under a new government, the task of restarting EU membership talks is difficult as anti-Western sentiment in Turkey is very strong across the political spectrum,” said Wolfgang Piccoli, co-founder of risk analysis firm Teneo. at Politico.

Regarding NATO, after Finland, the opposition is committed to ending the Turkish veto on Sweden’s accession immediately, even at the alliance’s annual gathering on July 11.

Greece and the Eastern Mediterranean

Turkey has stepped up its aggressive rhetoric against Greece in recent months, with Erdogan even warning that a missile could hit Athens.

But the immediate reaction of the Greek government and the Greek community to the recent devastating earthquakes in Turkey and the visit of Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Dendias created a new setting for bilateral relations.

“Both countries will have elections and so this will open a new horizon for both countries,” said Unal Çevikoz, Kilicdaroğlu’s chief foreign policy adviser.

“The rapprochement between Turkey and Greece in their bilateral problems [στο Αιγαίο]will facilitate coordination to address the other problems in the eastern Mediterranean, such as maritime border disputes and energy exploration,” he said.

As far as Cyprus is concerned, Tsevikos said that it is important that Athens and Ankara do not interfere in the internal politics of Cyprus and “the two peoples of the island should be given the opportunity to see their problems bilaterally”.

But analysts say Greece, Cyprus and the EastMed are fundamental to Turkey’s foreign policy and not much will change with another government. The difference will be more style.