Russia’s oil production this year is expected to reach 480 million tonnes, or about 9.6 million barrels per day (bpd), a government source familiar with the data told Reuters.

The figure, which excludes natural gas condensate, is in line with Russia’s pledge to cut output by 500,000 barrels a day to 9.5 million barrels from March to the end of the year, according to Reuters calculations. and the source.

“If you do calculations for the whole year, production will be 480 million tonnes,” the government source told Reuters on condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of such figures.

Russia’s energy ministry did not respond to a request for comment.

Oil and condensates

In 2022 the production of blended oil and natural gas condensates in Russia increased by 535 million tons (10.7 million barrels per day). Concentrates are excluded from the production quotas used by the OPEC+ group of oil producers for Russia.

Such production could reach about 520 million tons (10.4 million barrels per day) this year, according to the source, including about 40 million tons of condensed gas.

This number is significantly higher than Russia’s official 2023 oil and gas condensate production forecasts of between 490 million and 500 million tonnes (9.8-10 million barrels per day).

“Demand for Russian oil has broadly stabilized after the initial shock at the start of the war,” JP Morgan analysts said in research published this month. “We believe demand is returning to pre-war levels.”

Analysts estimate that total production (argo and concentrates) reached 10.8 million barrels per day in March, down 250,000 barrels per day from February.

Cuts to support prices

Oil production in Russia fell in April after Western sanctions were imposed over Russia’s war in Ukraine. However, Russia has since successfully started selling its oil to China and India.

In addition to supporting the price of oil, which is the lifeblood of the Russian economy, Moscow has decided to cut crude oil production by 500,000 barrels per day by the end of the year.

Russia, the world’s second-largest oil exporter after Saudi Arabia, has stopped or delayed releasing some key energy sector data, including production and export information.

“The lack of transparent official data from one of the world’s top oil producers makes it increasingly difficult to monitor global supply and analyze markets,” JP Morgan analysts said in their research.