Having been intensified by the effects of the conflict in Ukraine, the demographic crisis affecting Russiaa structural trend already exacerbated by the Covid pandemic, represents a major difficulty for an economy in full restructuring.

The warning was given in mid-April by the experts from the Higher School of Commercial Sciences (HSE) in Moscow: according to the scenarios, Russia should receive an average of between 390,000 and more than one million immigrants every year until the end of the century , if it does not want to see its population irretrievably reduced.

The findings are troubling, but they resonate “a general demographic situation that really isn’t very good,” Arnaud Dubien, director of the Franco-Russian Observatory in Moscow, told AFP.

“The problem is that the trend is towards a decrease in the number of births, due to the low number of girls born in the 1990s, the worst in demographic terms for Russia”said for his part Alexei Raktsa, an independent Russian expert on demography.

Yet it is this same generation—born during the economic, social, and moral crisis following the collapse of the USSR—that is now of childbearing age.

Added to this basic trend in 2020 was the Covid pandemic, which hit Russia hard, with around 400,000 deaths according to the official count, a number that observers say is significantly underestimated.

“Life expectancy in Russia has fallen by about three years during the two years of the pandemic”another demographic expert, Igor Efremov, pointed out, before returning to its level near 73 years on average.

In a sign of this deep demographic crisis, the Russian giant lost a total of 600,000 residents in 2022, 1.04 million a year earlier and nearly 688,700 in 2020.

Exit

A priority issue for Vladimir Putin since he came to power more than 20 years ago, notably with the introduction of a second-child birth bonus, the demographic issue now seems to have taken a back seat.

For more than a year now, the Russian state apparatus has been geared towards one basic mission: to contribute to the war effort in Ukraine, mainly with the “partial” conscription decided by decree last year in September.

Since September, “over 2% of citizens aged 20-40 were conscripted and about 3% more of this generation left Russia because of the situation”, estimated Alexei Raktsa, who is currently abroad having worked for the Russian statistical agency Rosstat.

In total, “at least half a million people have left, maybe more, mostly men,” of which “many people with many qualifications”, he estimated. “And possibly 100,000” others during February-March 2022, when the conflict broke out.

Without taking into account the heavy losses — which are not disclosed — in Ukraine.

This bloodshed further undermines the Russian economy at a time when a less populous generation is entering the labor market.

“Russia has a shortage of workers. It’s an old problem, but it’s been exacerbated by conscription and the mass exodus.” Rakcha explained.

Shortcomings

In these circumstances, unemployment, at a very low level of 3.5% in February, reflects not an enviable situation but a shrinking of the labor force that creates in many sectors difficulties in finding staff.

Published on April 19 by the central bank of Russia (BCR), a study of more than 14,000 enterprises confirmed the “sharpened” pressures in many sectors, such as transport.

And not everyone can compensate for this deficit with immigrant workers or even with a wage increase.

Natalia Zubarevich, an economist at Moscow State University, told AFP that she believes that among Russians who have left abroad for more than a year“some will return”, allowing for a partial balancing.

Igor Efremov estimates that “the influence” of the brain drain, the mass immigration of skilled professionals, is “overestimated”, while the debate over the fate of Russians who have left the country has been stirring the country’s elite for months.

Thousands of Russians who have left continue to work remotely for Russian businesses, sometimes making trips to Russia and returning to the country where they now live. But this financial relationship can be broken.

A recent law limits the financial opportunities of those trying to avoid a new wave of conscription. Which could incentivize those who have gone abroad to settle there indefinitely, with the risk of further exacerbating demographic difficulties.