Its support for Kemal Kilicdaroglu in the presidential elections of May 14 in Turkey is summarized by the Economist in an extensive article in which he summarizes that a possible victory would be a signal of the prevalence of “genuine democracy” in the face of modern attempts to undermine it on the part of modern authoritarian leaders

In fact, he estimates that this would have a huge geopolitical value for the West, which could bring the neighbor out of the isolation that characterizes it in recent years.

It is worth noting that the magazine chooses the topic of the Turkish elections as its cover with the title “the most important elections of 2023”

He believes in particular that a new administration would restore the troubled relations with the West, in particular with NATO, while acting as a catalyst for further moves towards the integration of Finland and Sweden into NATO.

“If Turkey ousts its authoritarian leader, democrats across the globe will take heart. After 20 years of increasingly authoritarian rule, Recep Tayyip Erdogan is in danger of being ousted by the voters,” he notes and emphasizes that the man who has ruled Turkey since 2003, in an increasingly authoritarian manner, may face defeat.

“In the event of his defeat, this would be a spectacular political upheaval of global proportions. The Turkish people would be freer, less afraid and – in the long run – living more prosperously. A new government would restore strained relations with the West. (Turkey is a member of NATO, but under Erdogan it has been a destabilizing factor in the Middle East and sought closer ties with Russia). But most of all, at a time when the dominance of authoritarian leaders is on the rise, from Hungary to India, Erdogan’s peaceful departure would show democrats around the world that authoritarian leaders can be defeated.

Starting in Turkey itself, a middle-income country of 85 million people at the crossroads between Asia, Europe and the Middle East, like authoritarian leaders around the world, Recep Tayyip Erdogan has cemented himself in power by systematically weakening the institutions that constrain and correct bad practices. governance. Institutions which his opponents, under a six-party alliance and with a detailed governing plan, promise to restore.

As part of the negative consequences of an over-centralized power, Erdogan’s economic policies are hitting average Turks the hardest. Having sacked three governors of the supposedly independent central bank within two years, he appointed his incompetent son-in-law as finance minister and has since forced the bank to implement an absurdly loose monetary policy with reckless haste.

As such, it has kept growth fairly steady, but driven inflation to a rate that reached 86% last year and is still well above 40% (according to official figures, which may not be reliable).

Voters complain that the price of onions has increased tenfold in two years.

If the challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, wins the presidency, he has pledged to restore the bank’s independence and reduce inflation to single digits, which, with any luck, will also reverse the collapse of foreign investment. But it’s not just the economy that will have to be fixed.

The Republic, too, is also on mechanical support. Like so many other authoritarian leaders, Erdogan has castrated the judiciary through a controlled board of legal appointments.

He has silenced the media, in part either through intimidation or through orchestrated selling to his cronies, another common ploy.

He has sidelined Parliament through constitutional changes in 2017, which gave him the discretion to rule by decree.

Mr Kilicdaroglu promises to reverse this. Prosecutors close to Erdogan have intimidated activists and politicians with trumped-up “terrorism” charges. Among Turkey’s political prisoners is the leader of the main Kurdish party – the third largest in the country – who is threatened with a ban.

His political opponent, the mayor of Istanbul, faces imprisonment and exclusion from political life.

Ex-government operatives in exile are afraid to criticize the President, demanding anonymity before discussing him in whispers. All of this will get worse if Mr Erdogan is re-elected, but will improve rapidly if he loses.

An opposition victory would also be good for Turkey’s neighbors and of high geopolitical value to the West. Turkey these days is almost completely cut off from the rest of Europe, although it is still, like, a candidate for EU membership.

That may never happen – but as President Kilicdaroglu is committed to honoring the rulings of the European Court of Human Rights and starting to release Mr Erdogan’s political prisoners.

Europe should respond by reviving a long-stalled visa program for Turks, allowing Turkey access to the EU’s common single market, but also closer cooperation with it on foreign policy.

With the departure of its strongman, Turkey’s rift with NATO will begin to mend. Its veto on Sweden joining the Alliance will be lifted.

Relations with America, poisoned by Mr. Erdogan’s closeness to Vladimir Putin and attacks on Kurdish forces in Syria, will improve.

However, a new Turkey would maintain Mr. Erdogan’s policy of walking a tightrope in relation to Ukraine. It would continue to supply Ukraine with drones, but would not join sanctions against Russia, which it relies on for tourism and natural gas.

More important than all this, however, would be the message an eventual opposition victory would send to democrats around the world.

Globally, more and more would-be authoritarian leaders are undermining democracy without abolishing it entirely, but by dismantling the rules and institutions that limit their power.

Fifty-six countries now qualify as “parliamentary autocracies,” estimates v-Dem, a research organization, out of the forty that stood near the end of the Cold War.

The list could grow: Mexico’s president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, is trying to undermine the country’s judiciary and electoral authority.

If Mr. Erdogan loses, it will prove that the erosion of democracy can be reversed and point the way. Democratic opposition parties must recognize the danger and unite before it is too late.

In India, a fragmented opposition allowed Narendra Modi, an authoritarian Prime Minister, to become dominant with 37% of the vote. Now the head of the official opposition faces the possibility of prison. The situation in Poland is less grim, but its opposition has also been eviscerated, one election after another, by the populist ruling party.

The Turkish opposition “Nation Alliance” has already done much better than them.

Mr. Kilicdaroglu may be a little boring, but he is a persistent consensus builder and charmingly humble, the exact opposite of his opponent. If he wins, it will be a huge moment for Turkey, Europe and the global struggle for genuine democracy. Mr. Erdogan did some good things in his early years in office, but the steady accumulation of too much power in his hands clouded his judgment and sense of morality, as it tends to do. We strongly support Kemal Kilicdaroglu as the next president of Turkey,” concludes the Economist.