New Pentagon report says China is accelerating its nuclear weapons program faster than anticipated and that Beijing could have double its current arsenal by 2027.
The findings, which obviously need to be read from the perspective of the worsening Cold War 2.0 under Joe Biden’s government, are in the Defense Department’s annual assessment of Chinese military capabilities, published on Wednesday (3).
The text says that, by 2030, the communist dictatorship could have a thousand nuclear warheads at its disposal, a huge leap from the 350 it should have now.
The verb is conditional because no one knows how many bombs are at Xi Jinping’s disposal. Even the Pentagon doesn’t count 350: it’s from the benchmark Federation of American Scientists, in its October 7 update.
In the same comparison, considered the gold standard for researchers on the subject, the Chinese have increased the number of warheads, but they are still far removed from the heirs of the Cold War arms race, USA and Russia.
Vladimir Putin has under his finger the firing button of 1,600 ready-to-use weapons, another 2,897 in reserve and 1,760 that have been retired but not yet deactivated.
On the same metric, they come numerically behind the US with 1,750 operational bombs, 1,950 stockpiled and 1,900 waiting to be dismantled. On the other hand, Chinese weapons, in this assessment, are in reserve — that is, they are not equipped with missiles or are on board bombers immediately.
Even without specifying its assessment of the Chinese arsenal, the Pentagon’s equally alarmist report last year said it would be “in the low 200”.
That China is strengthening its musculature, there is little doubt. The country has been testing new ways to deliver warheads to targets, as the controversial hypersonic missile tests it tries to deny having done indicate.
Recent studies have shown the construction of a new infrastructure network of silos for launching intercontinental missiles, the dreaded ICBMs, and Beijing already has submarine and bomber operatives capable of launching atomic artifacts.
Thus, along with Americans, Russians and Indians, the Chinese dominate the so-called nuclear triad. It’s about the ability to deploy your bombs from different platforms, increasing the possibility of retaliatory attacks.
Like its members of the atomic club, some more and others less incisive, Beijing denies that it will abandon the rule of never attacking with a bomb first. The most recent manifestations on the subject do not even admit an arsenal beyond the minimum necessary to guarantee deterrence.
“The People’s Liberation Army’s evolving concepts and capabilities continue to strengthen the ability to ‘fight and win wars’ against a ‘strong enemy’ — a likely euphemism for the US,” reads the US text.
The document denies there is a risk of direct confrontation with Beijing in the short term, but its tone is designed to fit in with the redesign of the American nuclear doctrine that is being carried out at Biden’s request.
When he took office in 2017, Donald Trump made a similar move, and the result was a relaxation in the hypotheses of using nuclear weapons with the introduction of a low-powered bomb for use in submarines.
This has led Russia to threaten all-out nuclear war if any missile is fired in its direction or that of allies, even with conventional payload.
The Chinese arsenal issue was also used by Trump to leave arms control deals with the Kremlin. For the Republican, Beijing should be included in the treaties. The main one, Novo Start, almost expired in February, but was saved and extended by Biden, in a victory for Putin.
But analysts believe the issue of the Chinese presence will come back to the fore soon, although the Russians are increasingly allied with Beijing to counter the growing American response to the presence of Xi’s forces in the Indo-Pacific.
The Chinese leader, in power since 2012, has already said he intends to see his country militarily match the US in 2049. Analysts believe this will be impossible in all fields, but feasible considering the concept of area of influence interdiction and nuclear deterrence.
.
