What would change in Turkey’s relations with the West after an Erdogan defeat?

The question concerns the German pressa few hours before the polls opened in the neighboring country.

In a front-page article-intervention, the Süddeutsche Zeitung argues that a defeat for Tayyip Erdogan in Sunday’s elections gives Turkey the opportunity for a new beginning: “Turkey is not located in Latin America, but in a critical point on the world map, between East and West. This is her fate. It is a Muslim country. In the early years of Erdogan’s rule, many hoped that Turkey could combine Islam with Democracy. At the latest after the Gezi Park protests in the summer of 2013, hope proved futile. In the neighboring countries the Arab Spring had already failed, in the West the conviction was being established that Democracy cannot thrive in the East. And now? Muslim Turkey is holding free elections and it is possible to send its president into retirement. The end of Erdogan would be an opportunity, not only for Turkey and the wider region, but for all those in the Middle East who dream of choose their own government. It would mark a change of era, at best a new beginning. For the relations between the EU and Turkey, between Europe and the Near East».

“Back to Europe” is the headline of DER SPIEGEL magazine about the possible “changing of the guard» in Ankara.

The columnist points out that “(Kemal) Kilicdaroglu has promised to correct Erdogan’s policy. In an interview with SPIEGEL, he clearly stated that he perceives Turkey as an integral part of the West. Kilicdaroglu is likely to implement the rulings of the European Court of Human Rights, which would pave the way for the release of opposition politician Selahattin Demirtas and philanthropist Osman Kavala. The EU could retaliate by lifting the visa requirement for Turkish citizens (visiting Europe) and starting negotiations with the Ankara government on a deepening of the Customs Union. Even a re-heating of the negotiations for EU membership is not ruled out».

Kilicdaroglu, like… Erdogan?

The economic review Handelsblatt expresses a completely different opinion: “It would be delusional to think that Erdogan’s opponents are all… anti-Erdogan. The non-reelection of the authoritarian leader does not necessarily mean that the majority wants more Democracy. The non-re-election will probably be due to the rise in prices and the fact that (Erdogan) is no longer able to maintain his client state. How much does the mass of voters care about Erdogan imprisoning his political opponents as ‘enemies of the state’».

But even in foreign policy there are delusions, argues Handelsblatt: “Kemal Kilicdaroglu has already made it clear that, should he win the election, he will remain loyal to Erdogan’s foreign policy principles. This means: no to trade sanctions against Russia, no to Turkey’s unconditional tether to the West».

The question, whether a change of government in Ankara also implies a change of policy towards Greece does not concern the German press. An exception is a short article from the newspaper Merkur entitled: “The elections in Turkey are causing a headache in Greece”. Among other things we read: “For many Greeks, the head of the opposition Kemal Kilicdaroglu does not raise hopes for a change (of policy). Diplomatic relations could be improved, but in terms of content, few believe that anything can change, writes the newspaper Politico. Regional, Greek-Turkish foci of crises in the Mediterranean – such as the Cyprus crisis, the delimitation of maritime borders and the confrontation over natural gas reserves – are likely to persist, even after a change of government».

Cyprus removes “problematic passports”

The magazine DER SPIEGEL focuses on the issue of the “golden passports” granted by Cyprus and Malta, noting the corrective actions of the two governments: “43 Russians and Belarusians have lost Cypriot citizenship, two others have lost Maltese citizenship, as it turns out from the European Commission’s response to a question from German MEP Moritz Kerner of the Liberals (FDP). (…) For the issuance of a passport, Cyprus required investments of at least 2.5 million euros. In the period 2007-2020, according to data from the Cypriot government, approximately 9.7 billion euros were collected.

Since the start of the Russian attack on Ukraine, the Commission has again condemned this controversial practice as ‘illegal’ and is calling on member states to consider removing citizenship, especially if the persons involved are on the EU sanctions list. The European Commission has taken legal action against Malta, while Cyprus has ended this practice.”