Four weeks after experiencing an alarming explosion of Covid cases, caused by the omicron, the United Kingdom may have already overcome the worst phase of the new wave exactly – and this is due to the high transmission power of the variant.
For specialists, the course of the onomicron in the European country may be an indication of how the variant will behave in Brazil: with a much larger and more agile wave peak than the previous ones, but of shorter duration.
British data indicate that, as it is highly transmissible, the variant no longer finds new people to contaminate in the country just over a month after it was first detected in South Africa. The country jumped from 43,250 positive cases of Covid in December 1st to 182,891 on January 5th of this year — a more than fourfold increase.
“What we are seeing with the omni is that it causes a wave peak that is larger than the previous ones, it rises faster, but it is shorter. This is largely due to the high transmissibility of the variant, which, in addition to being much more contagious, replicates 70 times faster than delta”, says Denise Garrett, medical epidemiologist and vice president of the Sabin Vaccine Institute, in the United States.
Even though the new wave of cases caused by the micron indicates that it is of shorter duration, experts warn that there are still uncertainties about its effect in other countries, especially those like Brazil, which does not have a testing and surveillance policy and restriction rules to reduce the transmission speed.
Since January 5, the moving average of new Covid cases in the UK has continued to fall, reaching 156,534 on Tuesday (11) – a reduction of almost 15% in six days. The average number of hospitalizations also continues to decrease in the period, but the moving average of deaths remains high.
“Although the omicron, in general, leads to less severe cases because vaccine coverage is high, it can still cause more severe symptoms in some people and lead to death. As many people are infected, the number of deaths also rises, but this data takes longer to appear because the worsening of the situation takes a few days”, says Fiocruz researcher Leonardo Bastos, member of the Covid-19 Observatory and specialist in statistical modeling of infectious diseases.
The moving average of hospitalizations in the United Kingdom grew by 63% in seven days, at the beginning of January, but reduced to 29% this Tuesday – that is, it continues to indicate an increase, but has slowed down. The moving average of deaths is at its highest level since November, with 239 new deaths per day.
“This rise in deaths in the United Kingdom is a reflection of what happened two or three weeks earlier. And that’s what we’re likely to see here in Brazil, the average of cases has already increased and that of deaths should rise in the coming days. different here”, he evaluates.
For experts, looking at the effects of the onomicron in other parts of the world is an indication of what can happen in Brazil, since the country is experiencing a blackout of numbers about Covid and it is not known how the variant is advancing. In addition to the instability in the Ministry of Health’s notification systems for more than a month, after hacking attacks, there is no comprehensive testing policy in Brazil.
“The course of the omicron in other countries is indicative, but it is hasty to say that we will have the same result, as we do not adopt the same control measures. The UK has a strong policy of mass testing, so it can do the screening of contacts, the correct isolation of confirmed cases. Here, as there are no tests, there is no control”, says health specialist Tatiane Moraes, from Fiocruz.
Although the UK’s response to Covid is different from Brazil’s, data from other countries also corroborate the behavior of the new variant. In South Africa, where it was first detected on Nov. 25, the omicron sparked an explosion of cases within a month, but the numbers are now on a downward curve.
The African country jumped from 916 daily cases of the disease on the day of detection of the variant to 23,194 cases on December 16 – an increase of more than 25 times. Since then, infections have continued to decline, with 7,564 cases recorded on January 10.
As in the United Kingdom, the number of deaths from Covid continues to grow in South Africa. At the peak of the wave of omicron, the country had 31 deaths a day from the disease. On January 10, there were 92 deaths.
“The predicted behavior is the same, an increase in cases at an absurd speed. Much greater than what we saw with other variants. The drop in cases will be rapid because the omicron will no longer find people susceptible to infection, the serious consequence is many will die from complications”, says Bastos.
Projections made by the University of Washington indicate that Brazil could reach 1 million infected on January 23 and a peak of 1.3 million in mid-February. The calculation also considers those who will be contaminated but not tested, that is, infections that will not appear in the country’s official data.
This Wednesday (12), Brazil recorded 88,464 cases of Covid, according to official data from the states collected by the press consortium. It is the highest number of infected since July last year. The moving average of deaths remains stable, with 123 deaths per day, an increase of 7%, compared to two weeks ago.
Specialists also point out that, due to the territorial and population size of Brazil, the wave of omicron infections can occur at different rates in each region.
Bastos highlights the risk of outbreaks with more serious effects in less vaccinated regions, such as the North. Amapá, Roraima and Acre are at the bottom of the country’s ranking, with less than half of their population having completed the cycle.
“For faster control of cases, what we need is to reduce viral spread. For this, in addition to expanding vaccination and the use of masks, testing is essential, with early diagnosis and isolation of cases. And this is undoubtedly something that we don’t do well in Brazil,” says Garrett.
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