By Athena Papakosta

Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s grand bargain has begun. The president of the United States called him. The occasion was none other than the new consecutive re-election of the president of Turkey after the biggest electoral challenge of his tenure.

The West is very concerned about what policy will be followed by Tayyip Erdogan the next five years of his presidency. Already early Monday morning we were reading in the international press the concern about Turkey’s further slide into a totalitarian regime oriented towards the East and Russia. “The Economist” wrote that Turkey “missed the opportunity to return to democracy” while “Foreign Affairs” underlined that “the country is turning from an illiberal democracy into a Putin-style empire”.

During of their phone call on Monday night, Biden and Erdogan, they didn’t take long to go to the grill since there are open issues between Washington and Ankara. For the Turkish president, the purchase of F-16 fighter jets is vital, while for Biden, Sweden’s accession to NATO is a top priority.

Analysts are trying to guess what face Recep Tayyip Erdogan will have in the next five years. At the moment, it is not excluded that the Turkish president softens the issue of Sweden joining the North Atlantic Alliance and decides to lift Ankara’s veto in order to unlock the sale of F-16s.

However, they are well aware that Erdogan’s Turkey loves a double board game and they are looking to the Moscow side that Ankara relies on for energy as well as for its tourism revenue. It is worth recalling that Tayyip Erdogan has refused to impose sanctions on Russia and its president in opposition to its Western allies while, at the same time, supplying Ukraine with drones.

At the same time, Turkey’s relations with Beijing and with the countries of the Middle East, some of which supported – by paying more – the collapsing Turkish economy, are also not absent from the equation. As “Politico” noted, “Turkey’s NATO allies are anxiously watching whether Tayyip Erdogan will follow through on his promises or his threats.”

Congratulatory messages from foreign leaders for the Turkish president’s victory poured in. The Emir of Qatar was the first to congratulate him, addressing him as “brother”. Second was the Prime Minister of Hungary, Viktor Orban, followed by the President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, who was quick to congratulate him for the independent foreign policy which, as he underlined, the Turkish President follows. For their part, the Westerners in their congratulatory announcements sent specific messages to the Turkish president with particular emphasis on the Eastern Mediterranean and Sweden’s accession to NATO.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan in his victory speech declared the beginning of the “Century of Turkey” which this year marks 100 years since the establishment of the modern Turkish state. Being the absolute ruler of the country for 21 consecutive years he promises his supporters that they will be separated by death, is now targeting the 2024 municipal elections and is preparing to start opening its cards either looking towards the West or towards the East.