For about a year now, drone attacks against military and energy facilities have been launched not only in Russian-annexed territories such as Crimea, but also in the Russian Federation. One of the first targets was in June 2022 the Rostov refinery. This was followed last December by the strategically important Engels Airport and recently the attack on various parts of Moscow.

What is behind the attacks? Analysts’ opinions differ. Austrian Russia expert Gerhard Mangot believes that the drone attacks in Moscow are connected to the attacks on the Russian border by paramilitary forces, which are supposed to be composed of Russians and operate from Ukrainian territory:

“Obviously the goal from the Ukrainian side is to transfer the horror of war to the Russian interior. The attacks send the message that the Russian state is unable to protect the population, whether they live near the border with Ukraine or in Moscow “. The Austrian expert believes that these attacks contradict the Kremlin’s narrative to the Russians that “everything is going normally, as if there had never been a war in Ukraine”.

“The aim is to raise the Russian price for the war”

In contrast, German military expert Gustaf Gressel from the think tank European Council on Foreign Relations believes that the drone attacks in Moscow and those against the Russian city of Belgorod should be separated. The expert tells DW: “The attacks on the Russian capital wanted to send the message to the ruling class that you too will wake up like us from anti-aircraft weapon systems.” Gustaf Gressel believes that Kiev wants to pressure Moscow to increase its military presence on the border by withdrawing troops from Ukraine: “It will be seen if in this way the Ukrainians increase the chances of success of a counter-attack in the near future ».

For its part, the West is reacting with restraint to the recent attacks. A German government spokesman told DW on Wednesday that international law allows Ukraine to launch self-defense attacks inside Russian territory, but added that Berlin opposes the use of German weapons by Ukrainians in such military operations. The US reaction was similar. White House spokesman John Kirby said the attacks against Moscow did not use US weapons systems, adding that the US “does not support attacks on Russian soil”.

Referring to the possibility of expansion of Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory, Olag Ingnatov, an expert of the International Crisis Group, believes that Kiev is trying to increase the Russian price for the war in Ukraine. Ignatov finds that the US “has influence in Ukraine, but not in every region”. It takes for granted that Washington is able to pressure Kiev not to use US weapons systems, such as HIMARS, for attacks on Russian territory. But he cannot do more than that.