Portugal sees socialists ahead, but far-right party gains strength for Parliament

January 15, 2022

Robert

Packed by the wear and tear of the government of socialist prime minister António Costa and by a good result in recent municipal elections, the right-wing parties in Portugal, led by the traditional PSD, already concentrate more than 40% of the voting intentions for the next legislative election, in 30 of January.

Although the Socialist Party remains in the lead in the polls, the deterioration of the party’s relationship with the other leftist parties – which made the approval of the last Budget unfeasible and led to the call for early elections – could lead to the country’s transition to a government led by the right. .

In the Portuguese political system, when there is no majority in Parliament, the parties sew agreements to form a coalition and be able to govern. Thus, in the scenario of an eventual “rigging on the right” —allusion to the nickname of the coalition that brought the left to power in 2015—, the possibility of a radical right-wing party participating in the governing arrangement is one of the main points of debate today.

Research indicates that the Chega party, which debuted in Parliament in 2019 and has only one deputy, should win more seats in the election and accumulate political capital to participate in negotiations.

The party and its leader —André Ventura, third place in the last presidential elections— are collecting controversial proposals, such as chemical castration of pedophiles, return to the death penalty and mandatory social work for beneficiaries of the Social Inclusion Program, a type of Portuguese Family Grant.

Chega has also had members linked to neo-Nazi organizations and is often accused of discriminatory speech against Roma communities. In December, the country’s Supreme Court of Justice upheld Ventura’s conviction for “offending the right to honor” for having called bandits, during a TV debate, members of a black family living in a housing project.

Without hiding the intention to integrate a possible right-wing government, Ventura is already talking about demanding ministries if his party achieves a significant vote. Despite pressure, Rui Rio, leader of the largest opposition party, the center-right Social Democratic Party (PSD), denies the possibility of joining the radical right to become prime minister. “I don’t want power at any price,” he said in a debate last week.

The social democrat said that there are “fundamental differences that prevent an agreement” and cited points he classified as serious in the Chega program. Political scientist Marina Costa Lobo, from the Institute of Social Sciences at the University of Lisbon, points out, however, that the statements rule out Chega’s entry into an eventual government, but do not exclude the chance of accepting parliamentary support from the party.

“It is problematic that a party like Chega, with problems in the courts due to racist statements by its leader and which says it wants a different regime in the country, is so easily integrated by the right”, says Lobo. “If in Portugal there was a government supported by Chega, so soon after this party was created, it would be one of the fastest normalizations at the European level.”

The PSD already had the support of Chega to take over the government of the autonomous region of the Azores. In late 2020, Social Democrats ended more than two decades of socialist leadership in the archipelago thanks to a maneuver with the help of the radical right party. Although regional politics have many differences from the national landscape, the arrangement is often cited in this election campaign.

A professor at the University of Lisbon, political scientist António Costa Pinto draws attention to the moment of recomposition of the most right-wing parties in Portugal. Surveys show a sharp drop in the CDS-PP, a traditional conservative party that today appears with 2% of the preference of the Portuguese.

In addition to Chega, another right-wing party should be strengthened: the Liberal Initiative, which defends the classic liberal agenda of reducing state participation and which currently has only one deputy.

“The right-wing opposition is now more fragmented, which is a novelty in Portugal. The elections will consecrate this fragmentation”, says Pinto. “In opposition to the socialists, the two traditional parties [CDS-PP e PSD] they banded together whenever they had a chance to come to power. So it was easy to find a government alternative on the right. Now, with this fragmentation, there is uncertainty on the right as well.”

André Azevedo Alves, professor at the Institute of Political Studies at the Catholic University of Portugal, also considers the reorganization of the right-wing vote to be one of the central points in the election, since it is not only the pre-election surveys that indicate this trend, but also the results of the last municipal elections, with the growth of Chega, mainly, and the Liberal Initiative.

The moderate position of the largest opposition party, however, makes analysts not rule out an arrangement between the Socialist Party and the PSD. Rui Rio, the social-democratic leader, presents himself at the center of the political spectrum and avoids major polarizations with the center-left. With him at the head of the PSD, the party voted together with the ruling party in almost two-thirds of the Executive’s proposals in the last legislature.

“If the Socialist Party continues to have the most votes, it will obviously try to renegotiate support for the left. If that doesn’t happen, it can try to negotiate another type of parliamentary agreement”, says Pinto, from the University of Lisbon. “But you have to be careful: it’s not a coalition with the PSD, but an agreement.”

So, for him, the most likely solution, if the most recent polls are confirmed, is for the PSD to abstain in Parliament, allowing a new socialist government to pass.