After a year of relative calm, Italian politics is gearing up for busy days. Next Monday (24th), the election of the 13th president of the Republic is scheduled, replacing Sergio Mattarella, 80, whose seven-year term ends on February 3rd.
The result is unpredictable, either because the choice —made by Parliament and state representatives— involves the fragmentation of the Italian party system, or because the voting rules provide unexpected situations. For starters, there are no pre-applications. The 1,009 “big voters”, as the deputies, senators and regional delegates are called, can choose any Italian citizen who is 50 years old and who enjoys political and civil rights.
For the secret ballot, everyone receives a blank ballot, on which they can write whatever they want — including jokes. All of them will then be read aloud in the plenary by the president of the Chamber, responsible for the investigation.
The name that obtains two-thirds of the votes wins (673). If no one gets the mark until the third ballot, after the fourth ballot, the absolute majority (505) takes effect. There is no limit to the number of votes; in 1971, for example, 23 of them were needed for the election of President Giovanni Leone, the record until today. In general, there is one session per day.
“The vote for the president of the Republic is like a conclave for choosing the pope, because there is no list of candidates and it is possible to choose anyone, with very open requirements”, says Alfonso Celotto, professor of constitutional law at Roma Tre University. . “The parties even indicate their names, but, since the vote is secret, very often these names are not elected.”
The expert recalls that, in 2015, Mattarella came out the winner, surprisingly, in the fourth vote, without his name having been part of public speculation in the preceding weeks.
If the atmosphere of surprise remains, the same cannot be said about the situation of the parties. “It is a much more complicated election than the previous one. Seven years ago, there was a dominant acronym, the Democratic Party, which, with its allies, had the majority of votes and could decide independently”, evaluates political scientist Piero Ignazi, professor from the University of Bologna.
“Today, there are two almost equivalent sides, left and right, and neither of them has votes to autonomously elect its candidate. And there are many deputies who are in the center and can determine the choice in one direction or the other.” According to projections by the newspaper Corriere della Sera, the center-right bloc would total 450 votes, and the center-left, 420.
It was precisely this fragmentation that led economist Mario Draghi, 74, to the post of prime minister in February 2021. Without a party, he was nominated by Mattarella after Giuseppe Conte saw his second government collapse, due to the departure of a dwarf party. of the majority that supported him in Parliament.
With the mission of conducting the vaccination campaign against Covid-19, which until then was skating, and especially the economic recovery plan from the pandemic, with resources from the European Union, the former president of the European Central Bank formed —and managed to maintain— a broad coalition, from right to left, with the exception of the ultra-right Brothers of Italy party.
A year later, the country has 80% of the total population vaccinated (45% have also taken the booster dose), and the estimate is that the GDP will have grown 6.3% in 2021. In December, Italy was chosen by the The Economist magazine as the country of the year.
For all these reasons, Draghi’s name circulates as one of the most suitable to occupy the Quirinal Palace, as the residence of the President of the Republic is called. The main commitment of the elected future will be to continue providing the conditions that lead to an exit from the health and economic crisis. By exchanging the post of prime minister for that of president —from head of government to head of state—, his powers would fall on the Legislative and Judiciary, in addition to the Executive.
“The Presidency of the Italian Republic is a guaranteeing power that communicates, collaborates and controls the three traditional Powers. Above all, it has two very important functions: the appointment of the prime minister and his ministers and an eventual early dissolution of Parliament”, explains Celotto. Therefore, unlike other parliamentary democracies, in which the position is more institutional, in the country its occupant cannot be considered a “queen of England”.
Draghi, who, despite his low profile and having vetoed questions about the Quirinal in his last interview with journalists, summoned a week ago to talk about the pandemic, signaled his availability for the position, saying in December that he is “a man, a grandfather, at the service of institutions”.
If that happens, it will be the first time in the history of the Italian Republic, born in 1946, that a prime minister will become president. “If Draghi is elected, he has to resign from office, because the post of president is incompatible with any other. Then, incredibly, he himself must appoint a new prime minister to form the new government.”
That name would lead the Executive until the end of this legislature, in 2023. If the eventual future prime minister is unable to obtain the support of a majority in Parliament, it is possible that there will be a need to call early elections. But that scenario seems unlikely, because from the next legislative election, thanks to a reform approved in a 2020 referendum, seats in Parliament will be cut by 345 seats — and no party seems interested in taking that risk.
For these reasons and others, there are those who defend Mattarella’s continuity in office, and, consequently, Draghi’s as prime minister. The Constitution does not veto the president’s re-election, but the outcome is considered exceptional and only happened once, in 2013. On that occasion, Giorgio Napolitano accepted the reappointment to stabilize politics after Matteo Renzi was elected as prime minister, but resigned two years then, aged 89, citing difficulties due to age and the desire to stay with his family.
“Confirming Mattarella in office would mean not touching anything, the simplest solution. But it would not be opportune or elegant, in a democracy, for a president to stay in office for 14 years without alternation”, says Celotto.
A former constitutional judge and minister on three occasions between 1987 and 2001, Mattarella ends his term with unusual approval among parties and public opinion. “He is one of the presidents with the greatest consensus. He showed great balance, capacity for dialogue with everyone, always tailored interventions and enormous respect for the constitutional prerogatives of the position”, evaluates political scientist Ignazi.
However, he himself has already explicitly said that he is not available for a second term, which, however, would not prevent him from being chosen by Parliament – no one elected has ever refused to assume the Italian Presidency.
On the other hand, who has already announced his candidacy and is counting the possible votes is Silvio Berlusconi, from the center-right Forza Italia party. At 85, the subject of more than 30 legal cases, including one for child prostitution (acquitted) and another for tax fraud (convicted), Berlusconi was publicly supported by two other right-wing leaders, Matteo Salvini (Liga) and Giorgia Meloni (Brothers from Italy), last Friday (14).
The move, however, has been seen as a kind of tribute to the last moments of his political career, a four-time former prime minister. “I don’t see Berlusconi as a real possibility for many reasons. In addition to having a divisive profile, he has a conviction for tax crimes and behavior in the private sphere that is totally inappropriate for an institutional role”, says Ignazi.
The week that begins promises to be, among party leaders, of tactical calculations and attempts to consolidate, behind the scenes, candidates for the 24th. including three women.
Apart from fans and personal preferences, no one dares to say what the result will be. “At this point, it’s like predicting who will win the World Cup, it would take a soothsayer. Italy’s presidential elections are full of surprises, and these are sure to be exciting days.”
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