The open war that broke out last night between the private mercenary company Wagner and the Russian military and political leadership is leading into uncharted waters.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has vowed to crush the armed rebellion after Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin entered Russia with his troops to overthrow the military hierarchy, saying he was “ready to die” with his 25,000 men to ” free the Russian people.”

The following is a short timeline of the events as they have until 16:40 Greek time while the developments are running fast.

Friday

Prigozhin releases a video intensifying his spat with Russia’s top military command and for the first time rejected Moscow’s baseless justifications for invading Ukraine.

In a series of back-to-back audio messages published on Telegram, Prigozhin says at around 10pm on Friday evening Greek time that strikes by the Russian army have caused “a very large number of casualties” in its ranks. He says that he and his “25,000” men are ready to die for “the motherland”, to “liberate the Russian people” from the military hierarchy against which he rebelled.
Russia’s FSB security service responds by opening a criminal case of “armed rebellion” against Prigozhin.

Russian Sergei Surovikin called Wagner fighters back to their barracks.

Saturday

Prigozhin says his men have crossed the border from Ukraine into Russia. “We keep going, we’ll get to the end.” “We will destroy anyone who gets in our way,” he threatens.

Wagner fighters are entering the southern Russian city of Rostov, according to the group’s leader.

Russian Prosecutor General Igor Krasnov informs Putin that a “criminal investigation into the attempt to organize an armed rebellion” has begun.

The governor of Rostov Oblast, which borders Ukraine, is calling on residents in the early hours of the morning to stay calm and “stay at home” as it becomes clear that Wagner’s forces have taken control of the city of Rostov.

The Russian Defense Ministry issues a statement calling on Wagner fighters to abandon Prigozhin, saying they were “deceived and lured into a criminal adventure.”

A Russian security source tells Reuters that Wagner fighters have taken control of all military installations in the city of Voronezh, about 500 kilometers south of Moscow.

Putin makes a televised address pledging to crush what he calls an armed insurgency. He accuses Prigozhin of “treason” and “stabbing in the back”.

Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev is calling on Russians to rally around President Putin.

Navigation on the Moskva River, which runs through the Russian capital Moscow, is suspended.

Russian military helicopters open fire on a Wagner military convoy on the M-4 highway outside the Russian city of Voronezh.

Chechen leader Ramzhan Kadyrov, a Putin ally, says his forces are ready to help put down Prigozhin’s rebellion and use harsh methods if necessary. Later he mentions that he is sending his men to “tense areas” in Russia.

Prigozhin says his fighters did not have to fire a single bullet to take control of the Russian army headquarters in the city of Rostov.

Russian soldiers have reportedly set up a machine gun emplacement on the southwestern edge of Moscow, according to Russian business daily Vedomosti.

Authorities in Russia’s Lipetsk region, located 420 km south of Moscow, today called on residents of the region to stay in their homes in the face of a mutiny by Wagner mercenaries.

Sergei Naryskin, the head of Russia’s foreign spy agency, SVR, said it was clear that what he described as an attempt to destabilize society and ignite a fratricidal civil war had failed.

European governments including Britain, France, Germany and Italy have issued statements saying they are closely monitoring developments in Russia.

EU High Representative Josep Borrell says he has been in contact with G7 foreign ministers.

Putin has a phone conversation with his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who expresses his support for the Russian leadership.
Russian military helicopters open fire on a Wagner military phalanx already halfway to Moscow in a lightning advance after taking Rostov overnight.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky states that “Russia’s weakness is obvious” and that the longer Moscow keeps its troops and mercenaries in Ukraine, the more chaos will be caused in Russia.

“The next 48 hours will determine the new situation in Russia,” writes Mykhailo Podoliak, adviser to the Ukrainian presidency.

US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said he would remain in close cooperation with US allies as the situation in Russia evolves.