Was it an outburst of anger from Yevgeny Prigozhin? An organized military movement? The sharpest challenge to the post-Soviet order? We still don’t know the details of what happened in the last 48 hours in Russia. The fact is that by Saturday afternoon Prigozhin was threatening to storm the Kremlin and Putin was accusing him of “treason, due to excessive ambition”, but a few hours later the two men appeared to resolve or at least forget their differences, after mediated by the president of Belarus Lukashenko. Why Lukashenko in particular?

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov tried to give an answer: “It is a fact that Alexander Grigorievich has known Prigozhin personally for a long time, almost twenty years. His was the initiative for mediation, which President Putin agreed to. We are grateful to the president of Belarus for his efforts. Thus, we managed to resolve the issue without casualties, without escalating the tension…”

“This is an internal issue of Russia”

So far, most Western leaders have avoided commenting publicly on the already volatile situation in Russia. Even in neighboring Poland, which has every reason to worry about destabilizing moves in the Kremlin, President Andrei Duda appeared reassuring. “There is no increased risk for Poland, the situation is not expected to affect us,” declared Duda after the last meeting of the National Security Council in Warsaw, attended by Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki. “We consider this to be an internal issue of Russia, which has no consequences in terms of military security. We certainly continue to monitor the situation, but we are not raising the alert levels of the armed forces.”

In Great Britain, the Ministry of Defense, in its announcement via Twitter, spoke of the “most important challenge of recent years for Russia”. However, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, speaking to the BBC, refrained from making such a comment, calling on all sides to “show responsibility and protect civilians”.

Military and political analysts are proceeding with more detailed assessments. Retired general Richard Barons, who was chief of the British military staff from 2013-2016, believes that there are specific reasons of military tactics that led Yevgeny Prigozhin to oppose the Kremlin: “Apart from the traumatic experience of Bakhmut, I think the final straw was the decision to place military organizations such as the ‘Wagner Group’ under the orders of the Ministry of Defence. This was supposed to happen from July 1st. And all this resulted in Prigozhin and his organization rebelling, but not directly targeting President Putin, but the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces.”

“Gentlemen’s agreement» with Prigozhin

The Kremlin confirmed the “deal” with the head of the Wagner group. Prigozhin leaves Russia and settles in neighboring Belarus, while both he and his fighters are not prosecuted. Are there security guarantees? ‘The president’s speech’ is a security guarantee, Kremlin spokesman says. Otherwise Prigozhin calls his men back to the barracks in the occupied Ukrainian territories.

American political science professor Brian Taylor, director of the Moynihan Institute of Global Affairs, believes that “this is the most dramatic military and political confrontation in Russia in the last 30 years, since the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 90s. I think that Putin’s position is significantly weakened. Whether you belong to the Russian elite, or you are an ordinary citizen, you follow the developments and say if it is possible, a private army is heading towards Moscow, no one is stopping it, there are practically no consequences. And this despite the fact that shortly before the president (Putin) appeared on television and accused them of ‘treason’, while making comparisons with …1917”.

The Kremlin confirmed the “deal” with the head of the Wagner group. Prigozhin leaves Russia and settles in neighboring Belarus, while both he and his fighters are not prosecuted. Are there security guarantees? ‘The president’s speech’ is a security guarantee, Kremlin spokesman says. Otherwise Prigozhin calls his men back to the barracks in the occupied Ukrainian territories. American political science professor Brian Taylor, director of the Moynihan Institute of Global Affairs, believes that “this is the most dramatic military and political confrontation in Russia in the last 30 years, since the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 90s. I think that Putin’s position is significantly weakened. Whether you belong to the Russian elite, or you are an ordinary citizen, you follow the developments and say if it is possible, a private army is heading towards Moscow, no one is stopping it, there are practically no consequences. And this despite the fact that shortly before the president (Putin) appeared on television and accused them of ‘treason’, while making comparisons with …1917”.