For years, the Wagner paramilitary organization has been considered Moscow’s armed arm abroad, mainly in Syria and several African countries. This status is now in question due to the recent “mutiny” of its head, Prigozhin, and the organization’s anti-Putin stance.

After the latest events in Russia, the retreat of Prigozhin and his exile in Belarus, the redefinition of Wagner’s relations with Vladimir Putin is now pending.

What will happen now to the mercenary organization’s operations in foreign theaters, where it excels in exploiting local resources, protecting governments, cyberwarfare and brutal warfare?

“The biggest effects of the episode may be felt in the Middle East and Africa,” writes Rob Lee of the Foreign Policy Research Institute on Twitter, stressing that “a short-term compromise” is different from a “long-term solution.”

Moscow needs Wagner to maintain its position in areas where its main concern is undermining Western influence.

Nevertheless, “Wagner has a strong presence in Africa (…). Will the Kremlin allow these activities to continue if Prigozhin and Wagner are based in Belarus?».

A question that no analyst can answer with certainty. “It is a mystery. It depends on how the Russian authorities want to divide what is happening in Africa and what is happening elsewhere,” summarizes American expert Michael Shurkin of 14°North Strategies, which specializes in Africa.

After all, “Russia may consider what Wagner is doing in Africa worth continuing because it serves Russian interests“, he comments.

One thing is certain: Prigozhin and Putin discussed this matter before reaching the agreement. Because Wagner depends on the Russian Ministry of Defense, which provides it with soldiers, material and weapons in its theaters of operations. And Moscow needs Wagner to maintain its position in these troubled zones where its main concern is undermining Western influence.

In Syriaaccording to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, Wagner’s mercenaries – hailing from Russia, former Soviet republics and Syria – have been operating as “special forces” in the theater of operations alongside the Kremlin’s military since 2015. Today , remain present, in smaller numbers, near the oil wells, as well as in the provinces of Hama and Lattakia.

In Africa, are present in Libya, Sudan and Mozambique. And they are on the front line in Mali, despite the denials of the junta that speaks of “Russian trainers”, as well as in the Central African Republic, where a Wagner executive manages the security of President Faustin-Arcanz Tuadera.

Wagner supplies Russia with “gold and ore from Sudan, the Central African Republic and Mali, which Putin needs to keep his economy on mechanical support,” according to a European military source.

The UN’s independent expert on human rights in the Central African Republic accused the army and its Russian allies of atrocities in February. The European Union then announced new sanctions against Wagner. On Friday, French President Emmanuel Macron accused Russia of being “a destabilizing force in Africa, through private mercenary armies that come to commit extortion and atrocities against the civilian population.”

“It takes time for the fog to clear”

The continuation will depend on the negotiations between Putin and Prigozhin, with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko as an intermediary.

“There seems to be a kind of fluidity and a wait-and-see attitude in Bangui and Bamako,” notes Maxime Audinet of the Institut de Recherche Stratégique de l’Ecole Militaire (IRSEM) in Paris, adding that websites related to nebula Prigozhin have been blocked, but only in Russia.

“The transfer of huge shares of privileged power to Wagner, to act where the Russian state does not want to interfere, has given it much more room for action than expected,” he emphasizes.

“I imagine that during the talks the issue of what will happen in the future with Wagner’s external activities was brought up on the table. Prigozhin’s network has become the dominant factor in Russian presence in sub-Saharan Africa in recent years. The fragile balance between Russian state and non-state actors on the African continent will experience major reshuffles.”

But it takes time for the fog to clear.

“Wagner had a certain degree of freedom of movement in her plans for Africa. Without the cooperation with the Russian Ministry of Defense, I don’t see how the organization-company can continue to operate,” says Pauline Bax, deputy director of the International Crisis Group’s Africa Program.

However, Putin “cannot send Russian soldiers to Wagner’s place. I do not imagine that he will immediately withdraw from the African continent.”