What would a civil war on American soil look like in this 21st century? Does this question make sense? The subject is not simple, but the answers are daunting and can be found in a book released this month.
Historian Barbara F. Walter has studied civil wars around the world for over 30 years. He never addressed the political instability in the US. Until recently, his country was at the top of the oldest democracies in the world. Not anymore, especially after the attempted coup d’état with the invasion of the Capitol.
Walter began, in 2018, the study for the book “How Civil Wars Start: And How to Stop Them”. At the time, the professor at the University of California had been recruited by the CIA not to study the USA. The US intelligence agency placed her on the Task Force on Political Instability, whose objective is to identify countries at risk of plunging into political violence.
The experience convinced the historian, well before the 6th of January, that her country had already advanced to the second stage considered conducive to civil war. Internships can be found online, as the CIA has published an update to its Insurgency Guide.
The first stage is organizational — extremists rally around causes — and the election of Barack Obama in 2008 was a bonanza for the formation of white militias. In the second, groups begin to arm themselves, and episodes of violence are treated by the government as isolated incidents. The attack on the Capitol made some American analysts speculate that the country had already moved to the third stage, that of open insurrection, but Walter says he believes we are not there.
She warns of two alarming trends under way. The country is already what she calls an anocracy, that is, no longer a complete democracy, but not yet a consummate autocracy. If the GOP’s active efforts to suppress the vote of soon-to-be-majorities continue, and if the far-right tries again to steal an election, it will be difficult to get back on track.
The Civil War (1861-1865) that Americans study at school is the bloodiest conflict in the country’s history. The confrontation between the northern federative union and the southern slave confederation left 750,000 dead.
The civil war of the 21st century, writes Walter, should be more like a guerrilla war, with the use of terrorist tactics. Despite having studied political violence in different countries, such as Libya and Northern Ireland, the historian explains that she notes two common factors that fuel a civil war. The most important thing is that the country is a partial democracy (or anocracy). The second is the population starting to split into religious, ethnic or racial groups and forming political parties that aim to exclude others.
Only Republican leaders like Senator Mitch McConnell could act to isolate the violent racist evangelical fringe that corrodes the party.
But the most visible pulpit is not being used urgently by its occupant. Joe Biden inhabits the fantasy of exceptional America, denies that violence and terrorism are an integral part of the country’s history — as seen in groups like the Ku Klux Klan. He cannot denounce the fact that a significant portion of American voters no longer want to live in a democracy. He wants minority supremacy.
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