More than 60,000 deaths attributed to the heatwaves that hit Europe in the summer of 2022, according to a wide-ranging study published today in the scientific journal Nature Medicine, with experts calling for increased efforts to deal with future extreme heat waves.

Estimates by scientists at the French Institute for Health Research (Isnerm) and the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal) suggest that if there is no effective response to the problem, the European continent will record at least 68,000 deaths due to heat each summer by 2030 and more than 94,000 by 2040.

The summer of 2022 was the hottest ever recorded in Europe and was characterized by successive heat waves, record high temperatures, drought and forest fires.

The scientists analyzed data on temperature and mortality during the period 2015-22 in 823 regions of 35 European countries where the total population exceeds 543 million people. They were then able, based on epidemiological models, to calculate the deaths linked to the increase in temperature in each region, per week. In total, from May 30 to September 4, 2022, they estimated that 61,672 deaths can be attributed to the heat.

During this period, a very intense heat wave was recorded between July 18-24 and it is estimated that during this period 11,637 people lost their lives due to the extreme weather conditions.

“The number of deaths is very high,” Issam Asebak, a researcher at Inserm and one of the study’s authors, told AFP. “We knew the consequences of heat (on health) based on a previous study in 2003 but with this analysis we see that a lot of work remains to be done to protect the population,” he added.

In the summer of 2003, when Europe experienced one of the worst heatwaves in its history, an estimated 70,000 people died from the extreme heat.

The study found that the Mediterranean countries (Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain) had the highest mortality, in proportion to their population. “The Mediterranean is suffering from desertification, heat waves are intensifying during the summer precisely because of these drier conditions,” said the study’s second author, Juan Ballester, a professor at ISGlobal.

Last July the thermometers in Portugal showed 47 degrees Celsius, approaching the absolute record of 47.3 degrees recorded in that country in 2003.

In absolute numbers, the most heat-related deaths were recorded in Italy (18,010), Spain (11,324) and Germany (8,173).

As human-caused climate change leads to rising temperatures, heat waves are becoming more frequent and intense. Extreme heat can kill by causing heatstroke or worsening cardiovascular and respiratory conditions. The elderly are one of the most vulnerable categories of the population.