The day after tomorrow, on Wednesday, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will deliver her State of the Union address.

It will be the last of her current term and an opportunity for a reckoning, at a time when there is growing speculation in Brussels about whether she will seek re-election.

Nine months before the European elections in June 2024, which will usher in major changes at the top of the EU institutions, political maneuvering has begun and rumors are swirling in the microcosm of Brussels.

Will the head of the EU executive stand for another five-year term? This scenario is considered possible by many, but the person concerned remains silent about her plans.

“He firmly intends to work until the last day with maximum efficiency,” Commission spokesman Eric Mamer told AFP.

The German former defense minister’s name has also been mentioned for the October 2024 succession of NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg.

– Two major crises, one after the other –

The Christian Democrat official, who became head of the EU’s executive body at the end of 2019, has had to deal with two major crises, one after the other: first the Covid-19 pandemic, then the war in Ukraine. He led the creation of a giant recovery plan, the common vaccine market, support for Kiev, a strategy to end energy dependence on Russia…

It also boasts that it delivered much of the Green Deal, the ambitious plan to cut EU carbon emissions, which it had made a priority. However, this pact has not yet been completed, as some of its texts have provoked strong reactions from von der Leyen’s political family, the right-wing European People’s Party (EPP).

She also succeeded in getting two important regulations passed to deal with the infringements of the giants of the digital economy.

Among the issues yet to be tackled is the thorny reform of immigration policy, which continues to provoke difficult debates as the rise in asylum applications in Europe puts pressure on states’ receiving capacities.

“Her account is far from bad,” emphasizes Thierry Chopin, special adviser at the Jacques Delors Institute. “This Commission has become much more geopolitical and that was a promise of its president,” he adds.

German MEP Klaus Schwab, a member of Germany’s Christian Democratic Party (CDU), like von der Leyen, expects the Commission president to deliver a “message of encouragement” to Europeans on Wednesday, insisting on how the EU has overcome judgments.

“At the same time, it will recognize the feeling among citizens that there is too much European bureaucracy, too fast a pace of regulation,” says the MEP. These are concerns voiced by European leaders, who have called for a regulatory break on environmental regulations amid the rise of the far right in Europe.

Last Tuesday, the German official’s position in favor of a review of the wolf’s protected species status was also interpreted by some as a message to the farming world and her own party.

– “To remain neutral” –

Von der Leyen was promoted to head the Commission in 2019 after difficult trades between European leaders.

A close associate of Chancellor Angela Merkel, her name had been suggested by Emmanuel Macron. The French president opposed the appointment of the German Manfred Weber, who was running for the position as the candidate of the EPP, the first political force in the European Parliament.

However, it did not receive the confidence of the European Parliament except with a small majority of nine votes.

Will she be the candidate of the EPP this time? The party plans to hold its congress in early 2024 in Bucharest to shape its program and appoint the head of its ballot.

For Andreas Schwab, the president of the Commission, head of a group in which different political families are represented, cannot declare her candidacy too early. “She will be obliged to remain neutral until perhaps the end of April, because until then she must be able to carry out her duties. From that moment, he will be able to campaign,” he estimates.

A possible re-appointment of von der Leyen as head of the European Commission will also depend on the political balance of power within the next European Parliament, as well as the upcoming elections in Slovakia, Poland and the Netherlands, which will affect the balance in the European Council where the 27 leaders participate.