By Athena Papakosta

So far about 28,000 Armenians have left Nagorno-Karabakh. This is almost 23% of the enclave’s population leaving the region for Armenia for fear of ethnic cleansing.

The queues of vehicles that form are endless. Inside them are entire families – women, children, the elderly. Many of them blame Yerevan as well as Russian peacekeepers for failing to prevent Azerbaijan’s 24-hour military operation last Tuesday, after which the armed forces of the separatist “Republic of Artsakh” surrendered and Nagorno-Karabakh returned. under the control of Baku.

The Prime Minister of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan, had already accused Moscow on Sunday of not protecting the Armenians from the Azeris, while the representative of the State Department, Matthew Miller, declared that “Russia has shown that it is not a reliable ally”.

For its part, Moscow accuses the Armenian authorities of seeking to “destroy” relations between the two countries and underlines that they are turning Armenia into a “hostage of the West’s geopolitical games”.

Russia’s influence is waning

Russia seems to be losing its influence and its hegemonic role in the region.

In recent months, Yerevan has been highly critical of Moscow over the failure of its peacekeeping forces to keep open the Lachin Corridor, which had been blocked by the Azerbaijanis.

It was preceded by the Pashinyan moves with the gaze turned towards the West. On the one hand, his clear statement that Armenia is not an ally of Russia in the war in Ukraine and sending humanitarian aid to Kiev. While, on the other hand, Yerevan’s no to the conduct of exercises in the Collective Security Treaty Organization, under Russia, on Armenian soil, as well as the “green” light to the conduct of joint high schools with the United States in Armenia, had been expressed.

At the same time, Moscow was not at all pleased with the visit of the former speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, to Yerevan a year ago, nor with Pashinyan’s statements, a few weeks before, in the Italian newspaper La Repubblica, where he predicted that the Russians are preparing to leave the South Caucasus.

With an eye on Baku

Moscow and Baku have good relations. A few days before the start of the war in Ukraine, the president of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, was in the Russian capital while, shortly after, he agreed to supply gas from Russia.

There are analysts who note that Azerbaijan appears to be a more valuable ally for Moscow. As they explain, it is a country bigger and richer than Armenia with large reserves of oil and natural gas and with a defense budget three times that of Yerevan.

Already, Russia and Iran, two close allies, agreed with Azerbaijan last spring to build a railway line along the Caspian Sea coast.

The role of Turkey

But for analysts, Turkey is the country that comes to cover the security gap that Russia leaves in the region. It is a fact that Ankara sees its role being strengthened. The Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, visited Nakhichevan, an enclave of Azeri, a few 24 hours ago, and together with Aliyev inaugurated a pipeline that will transport Azeri natural gas to Igdir, Turkey. Turkey’s president supported Baku’s victory by expressing “proud” with his Azeri counterpart his gratitude for Turkey’s military and political assistance, acknowledging the important role it played in the outcome of the conflict.

The West is revising

The West is not happy with Baku’s attitude. For many years, Azerbaijan has been pushing to prove its worth to the EU and the US, and now it seems that the Western states are reevaluating both the importance and the credibility of the country.

“The military violence we have seen from Azerbaijan is unacceptable”, said the German Foreign Minister, Analena Berbock from the UN, while the French President, Emmanuel Macron, pointed out that “today we have a Russia that is an accomplice of Azerbaijan, a Turkey which has always been a supporter of these maneuvers and a power that has no hesitation and that threatens the borders of Armenia”.

At the same time, the United States expresses its “deep concern” for the fate of the Armenian residents of Nagorno-Karabakh and announces that it will provide $11.5 million in humanitarian aid to Armenia.