In tomorrow’s elections in Bavaria and in Hesse much more is at stake than who the new state governments will be. The results are expected to cause new shocks in the federal government and another headache for the chancellor Olaf Solz.

According to the latest poll, yesterday Friday, on behalf of the second channel of the German public television ZDF, the hitherto governing coalitions (Christian Social Union (CSU) – Free Voters (FW) in Bavaria and Christian Democratic Party (CDU) and Greens in Hesse) it is estimated that they will manage to secure the required majority for a new term.

In the opinion poll for Bavaria, the CSU it leads with 37%, which, however, is a historic low for the party that had been used to self-reliance for decades, while its governing partner, the Free Voters, is at 15%. The Greens gather 16%, the Social Democratic Party (SPD) is limited to 9% and the Alternative for Germany (AfD) reaches 14%. The Liberals (FDP) look set to remain out of parliament again, with 3%.

In Hesse it CDU maintains its lead with 32% and the co-ruling Greens are at 17%. The SPD, led by Federal Interior Minister Nancy Feser, has the same percentage. Ms Feather chose – with the blessings of the party and the chancellor – not to give up her cabinet post, likely discounting the negative outcome for herself. The AfD follows with 16% and the FDP is at the 5% mark.

At first reading, no major upheavals are foreseen in the two states. In addition, the extreme right, despite its expected strengthening, by 3-4 points compared to the previous elections, will not manage to threaten the balance, contrary to what has been happening in recent years in the former eastern states. But Olaf Solz, in addition to the looming double defeat of his party and Nancy Feser, on Monday will have to face another problem: the Liberals are in danger of being left out of the state parliaments, both in Bavaria and in Hesse. As the first German public television channel ARD states in a report, “if Olaf Solz is used to saying evening prayers, he will probably now include the FDP as well.” Finance Minister Christian Lindner’s party is already out of parliament in seven states, and tomorrow it will probably prove once again that “the federal government does the FDP no good.” After successive defeats, it is therefore reasonable that the Liberals will become even more demanding and difficult partners for the SPD and the Greens, from whom – as it has been proven – an abyss separates them.

According to a recent ARD survey, dissatisfaction with the federal government, especially on immigration and the energy crisis, is estimated to be a significant factor in the choice of vote of citizens in the two states, where 1/4 of the country’s population lives. Immigration remains at the center of the controversy: states complain that they have reached the limit of their capabilities, while the extreme right benefits from the inability to manage the problem both by the government and – as was demonstrated yesterday in Granada – by the European Union.

In the Christian Union (CDU/CSU) camp, the two expected victories on one side will give a breather to CDU leader Friedrich Merz, who has recently been collecting unfortunate statements and criticismbut on the other hand they will keep CSU leader Markus Zender as a possible opponent in the bid for the anointing for the chancellor ahead of the crucial 2025 elections.

But before all this comes 2024, with European elections, state elections in the eastern regions (Brandenburg, Thuringia, Saxony, Mecklenburg-Pomerania) and municipal elections in six states. There, in the “stronghold” of the German far-right, the direction of a large part of German society will be largely decided. And the forecasts are particularly ominous at the moment.