China is developing its nuclear arsenal at a much faster rate than the US previously estimated, in line with President Xi Jinping’s ambitions, says a Pentagon report released today.

According to American estimates, China possessed “more than 500 operational nuclear warheads by May 2023” and is poised to have “possibly more than 1,000 by 2030,” according to the annual report on “Chinese military power” commissioned by the US Congress.

“It’s poised to beat some of our earlier forecasts,” he says.

The report also paints a picture of a fully developed and modernized Chinese military, increasingly gaining ground on the international stage — notably exerting pressure on Taiwan.

Those warhead figures are apparently unchanged from a previous Pentagon report in 2021, but a senior Defense Department official insists the Chinese are “preparing to exceed our projections.”

“We’re not trying to imply a very big departure from the direction they appear to be taking … but we are suggesting that they are close to exceeding those previous forecasts,” the official told reporters on condition of anonymity.

And “that obviously raises a lot of concerns for us,” he added.

He called on Beijing to show “more transparency” on the issue as China refuses to share information with the US about its arsenal.

Intimidation

The report also notes that Beijing seeks to improve its ability to launch these warheads — from the ground, from an airplane or from a submarine and “apparently completed” the construction of ICBM launch facilities counting more than 300 silos in total.

By comparison, the US has 3,708 nuclear warheads and Russia 4,489, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Sipri), which estimates 410 for China.

The Pentagon on Tuesday accused China of engaging in unprecedented acts of intimidation in Asia-Pacific airspace, as Chinese fighter jets increase dangerous maneuvers around US aircraft on mission or aerial reconnaissance.

Undersecretary of Defense for Asia Eli Ratner then cited “more than 180 incidents” since the fall of 2021, “more than in the last decade” that testify to an increased aggression by the Chinese military.

The US has identified China as representing its main strategic challenge, as it is “the only adversary with the will and, increasingly, the ability to change the international order”.

Beijing, for its part, accuses Washington of pursuing a policy of “containment and encirclement” against China.

Relations between Beijing and Washington have been marked by high tension such as during the overflight of a Chinese balloon over American soil earlier this year.

The two countries have, however, renewed their dialogue with successive visits by senior US officials to Beijing in recent months, but Washington resents the fact that Beijing continues to deny direct communication at the highest level between their respective military hierarchies.