By Korina Georgiou

Israel’s war machines are warming up for the much-discussed ground operation in Gaza against Hamas terrorists as delicate geopolitical balances in the region hang by a thread.

Smiel Barr, former Senior Official of the Ministry of Defense of Israel explains to SKAI who are the players on the Middle East “chessboard”, who benefits from the Israel-Hamas war and how the next phase of the operation will be implemented.

Read the full interview here:

Korina Georgiou: Could you tell us more about the phases of this multifaceted Israeli operation against Hamas and what are the objectives?

Smile Bar: Right now Israel has already completed the first phase, which is to make sure there are no more terrorists inside Israel, and we have begun intensive bombing of known Hamas facilities inside Gaza. Now, Israel has already told the population of Gaza to move south of its river, so that we know that whoever is in the area we are going to “clear” belongs to Hamas. The problem is we have seen videos sent by Hamas of Hamas people taking people who were trying to avoid the roadblocks and executing them and throwing them into ditches. So Hamas is spreading this to prevent people from trying to escape and basically to keep them as human shields. Once we ensure that the core population is no longer in the area, we will proceed with the ground operation. The aim of the operation is to destroy Hamas’ infrastructure and military capability.

K. G. But can Hamas be completely eliminated, in your opinion?

S. Barr: I think Israel’s goal today is to eliminate Hamas as a political military entity and to find a way to transfer the Gaza Strip to a responsible government, whether it’s the Palestinian Authority, or the Palestinian Authority, along with some kind of international or European organization or something like that.

K. G. What will the fighting be like inside Gaza City in such a densely built-up area? And basically, are we going to see battles taking place within the city?

S. Barr: I think we’ll hope not. There are various forms of siege. For example areas where you tell people you are under siege but now leave so we only have Hamas people in there to minimize civilian casualties. It’s not easy.
However, Israel cannot allow itself to go through something like what we experienced on October 7th. This is a trauma for Israel.

K.G. How dangerous do you think these battles inside Gaza will be for Israeli soldiers?

S. Barr: Very dangerous, especially if we have to enter tunnels. You know, we have what we call “upper Gaza” and “lower Gaza”. They built an underground Gaza with tunnels and shelters. And that is what we will have to deal with. We should destroy these places. We have ways to discover them. Our logical conclusion will be that whoever is in these tunnels and shelters belongs to Hamas. So we’ll have to blow them up, trying not to walk into them, because that would be a death trap. But there are ways through the use of technology. But this is definitely a high-risk business. Once the ground operation starts, we expect it to take about two months at least. It may take longer. If we are lucky we will be able to find the leaders of Hamas. This will not be limited to Gaza. The leaders of Hamas are in Ankara, Qatar, Iran and we will have to deal with them.

K.G. So who benefits from this crisis brought about by Hamas’ attack on Israel in the Gaza Strip and who are the players in this conflict?

S. Barr: First of all, the interesting thing here is that everyone sees this as a conflict between Israel and Hamas. There is no doubt in our minds – I think there is enough information to support this – that the initiative for this Hamas attack was Iranian. Iran was facing a problem, a dilemma. According to it, the United States was trying to reach an agreement with Saudi Arabia, which would give Saudi Arabia a defense agreement, a defense treaty with the United States against Iran and the nuclear fuel cycle, which would allow the Saudi Arabia – if Iran develops as a nuclear power – so should it. In return, Saudi Arabia would increase oil production in order to offset what is happening in the Russia-Ukraine war. Also, Saudi Arabia was to normalize its relations with Israel. So the Iranians felt that the weak part of this whole grand deal that the Americans were trying to build was the normalization agreement with Israel. So, if they blew up the situation between Israel and the Palestinians through their “proxies”, then Saudi Arabia would not be able to push through normalization with Israel and the whole deal would collapse. Now, we believe that three countries knew about this in advance. First, Qatar, because much of the Hamas leadership is in Qatar, and they know what’s going on. The second country is Russia. Russia has enormous intelligence capabilities because of the connection with Saudi Arabia and the oil connection and because of the relations it has with Iran. So we believe that Russia had prior knowledge of this. Third, we have Turkey. The military leadership of Hamas is in Turkey. Now, Turkey can benefit from this if, for example, we proceed with the reconstruction of Gaza. Turkey is already saying it wants to get in on the act, and I’m sure there are several construction companies owned by some son-in-law or cousin of Erdogan who want to make a significant profit. And then they will. They would like to have a foothold in Gaza that would strengthen Erdogan’s Islamic credentials. And it also supports the theory of the blue homeland, the grand strategy of Turkey. And Iran benefits from that, but I think Iran is playing a very dangerous game because it’s provoking Hezbollah to try to find a level of provocation to Israel where Israel will respond, but not go to full-scale war with Hezbollah . Hezbollah is currently in a very difficult situation with Lebanon. Lebanon is a victim country. It is a dysfunctional country. And if Hezbollah attacks us from Lebanon, then Lebanon attacks us. Lebanon will not be able to withstand the destruction that such a war will bring. And then, you see, Hezbollah is the crown jewel of Iran’s “proxies.” If they lose Hezbollah, they will lose a lot. So they are trying to play the game of balance so that they don’t lose Hezbollah, but use it.
But the Russians are also involved because the Russians have interests. They benefit from it because it diverts attention from Ukraine and deprives Ukraine of resources. And of course, it disrupts the American plan to stabilize oil prices, which is also a win for Russia, since it only benefits from high oil prices.

K.G.: According to Bloomberg, the United States and Israel are weighing a future for the Gaza Strip without Hamas, with US and Israeli officials discussing possibilities, including the possible installation of an interim government backed by the United Nations and the participation of Arab governments. Would that be possible? And what is your assessment of how the Gaza Gordian knot will ultimately be resolved? If “solved”…

S. Barr: As you know, the Gordian knot has never been broken. It just got cut. Mathematician Gödel proved that there are equations that cannot be solved without changing one of the basic elements of the equation. And Israel, the Palestinians and Gaza are one of them. If Hamas is completely defeated, then the first thing on the table will be for the Palestinian Authority to agree to take over Gaza. But the Palestinian Authority is very weak. Mahmoud Abbas is too weak and not so willing to take Gaza as a “prize” on the back of Israeli tanks. The international community needs to get involved now in Ukraine, and I’m not sure enough that it has the space for the international community to really get involved. In a perfect world, this would be a good solution. But, as you’ve noticed, we don’t live in a perfect world. What we want is for Gaza to be able to prosper, but alongside us and not as part of us.