On a visit to Argentina in early December, former President Lula took a stand alongside Argentine leader Alberto Fernández, his deputy, Cristina Kirchner, and former Uruguayan president José Mujica to foreshadow the re-edition of the period, between the first and second decades of this century, in which leftist governments were predominant in Latin America. “These companions were part of the best moment of democracy in our Great Homeland, in our dear Latin America”, said Lula.
In fact, there is already talk of a new “red tide” in the region, due to the recent electoral victories of the left in Chile, with Gabriel Boric, and in Peru, with Pedro Castillo, last year, due to the return of the political group of Evo Morales to power in Bolivia in 2020, and to the favoritism that Lula and Gustavo Petro have shown in polls for this year’s elections in Brazil and Colombia, respectively.
Between 2006 and 2016, the left ruled more or less simultaneously, with intervals here and there, Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Chile, Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Paraguay and some Central American republics. . Besides, of course, Venezuela. The Venezuela factor is what will make the new wave of leftist governments, if confirmed by the Lula and Petro elections, be essentially different from the previous one.
To ensure internal governability and external credibility, some of the new leftist governments in the region seek distance from the regime of Nicolás Maduro. Boric, who assumes the presidency in March, told the BBC last month that the left-wing project in Venezuela “is an experiment that failed” and that “the main demonstration of its failure is the 6 million Venezuelans in the diaspora”.
The declaration is an acknowledgment that Chavismo has led not only to the impoverishment of the population, but also to the erosion of democracy, as what motivates Venezuelans to flee their country is a combination of economic and political factors. Like Boric, Castillo, the president of Peru, is also trying to reassure domestic sectors that see him as a chavista with a big hat.
Asked last week on CNN what he thinks of the regimes in Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua, Castillo said: “I’m not part of it and I wouldn’t want Peru to become one of those models.” Elected by a small Marxist party, he faces a crisis with the opposition-majority Parliament. In six months of term, he is already in his second ministerial reform.
Even the Kirchnerist government has been trading barbs with representatives of Maduro after Argentina, which chairs the UN Human Rights Council, called on Venezuela for “immediate and thorough investigations” into allegations of human rights violations taking place in the country.
Diosdado Cabello, considered Chavismo’s number 2, retaliated on his TV show, suggesting that the demand was the result of external pressure: “Does the International Monetary Fund press a lot? Does the World Bank press a lot?”. Cabello’s ironic tirade is due to the fact that Argentina has faced tough negotiations over its debt with the IMF in recent weeks. The agreement will be submitted to Congress, but it faces resistance from the wing most loyal to Cristina. His son, Máximo Kirchner, resigned as government leader for opposing the outcome of the negotiation with the fund.
During her presidential terms, between 2007 and 2015, Cristina was very close to Venezuela’s Chavista government. Now, however, that past affinity haunts the current vice. In denunciations to the Spanish justice, in order to avoid extradition to the US, Hugo Carvajal, a former general and ex-Chavista spy, has been making serious accusations against important figures in Latin America, including Cristina.
According to Carvajal, the Chávez government sent US$ 21 million to the campaign that elected her, not just the US$ 800,000 seized from a private plane that landed at a Buenos Aires airport in 2007, in the “case of the suitcase.” Gustavo Petro, candidate for the presidency of Colombia, was also mentioned. The former Chavista military man says that Venezuelan resources irrigated Petro’s past campaigns behind the scenes.
Carvajal has yet to present proof of his accusations, but the fact is that they keep alive the memory that the previous “red tide” was not just a period of alliances anchored in ideological affinities or common integration projects. There was also Chávez’s willingness to gain regional strength through the distribution of petrodollars and the influence that large companies interested in the opportunities that his country offered — by waiving bids — exerted over their own governments.
The new red wave on the horizon is different from the previous one because it will not have the ascendancy of Chávez, who demanded a confrontational posture with the United States from his neighbors and who preferred to use regional institutions for political rather than commercial purposes.
Venezuela will no longer have a leadership role, with the ability to dictate the direction of the regional left. The new leftist governments in Latin America may even re-establish diplomatic relations with Caracas, but they want more than to keep a safe distance from the Chavista regime.
Nicolás Maduro has nothing to offer.
Source: Folha
