In Lebanon and the “strong man” of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah, the eyes of the international community are turned today Friday, as he will make a speech to his fans, the first since the start of the Israel-Hamas war.

In his speech after 3pm (Greece time), immediately after the Friday Muslim prayer, Nasrallah is expected to clarify the intentions of the Shiite organization for another war front for Israel, in the North, as so far its fighters and the IDF have only engaged in skirmishes on the Israeli-Lebanese border. It is noted that Nasrallah seems to be under pressure from his fighters to enter the war to help Hamas, while Hamas is also publicly pressuring Hezbollah for practical help.

The American perspective

CNN reported Thursday that the U.S. intelligence community believes — for now — that Iran and its satellites “measure” their response in Israel’s military intervention in Gaza to avoid direct conflict with Israel or the US while still burdening their adversaries.

But the US is also well aware that Iran it does not maintain absolute control over its umbrella of satellites – particularly Lebanese Hezbollah, the largest and most capable of the various groups. Hezbollah is an ally of Hamas, the group that attacked Israel on October 7, and has long declared it is fighting Israel. US officials are deeply concerned that the group’s internal politics could provoke Hezbollah to escalate simmering tensions.

The US too they don’t always have a perfect image in communications between Iran and its various satellites, according to sources familiar with US intelligence in the region.

What they appreciate in Israel about Nasrallah’s speech

To the question that concerns Israeli public opinion, but also the international community, that is if the leader of Hezbollah Hassan Nasrallah will announce on Friday new front against the IDF on Friday, the former leader said of Israeli Military Intelligence Maj. Gen Amos Malka to Times of Israel.

When asked about the Hezbollah leader’s expected speech on Friday afternoon, Malka stated that “right now (in Israel) we are in a focused battle on the southern front, but we see what has happened in recent weeks on the northern border. We try at this moment to avoid opening a (new) front”, write down.

“I think he’ll try to make every effort not to get involved in a wider operation.”, Malka said. “You know we all take calculated risks, but when we make a mistake in a ‘calculated risk’ it becomes dangerous. I think he will try to do something which will not tempt Israel to open a front.”

Malka declared with conviction that it is not in Iran’s interest to allow Hezbollah to declare war on Israel at this time. “I think Iran has created these capabilities for Hezbollah for the moment when Iran itself will need it, and less to pay the price by participating in Hamas operations. My logical thoughts, and I assume others, are that (Nasrallah’s) interest in opening a full front is not high (in his priorities), but never say never.”