Putin enters Cold War 2.0 on the side of China against the US

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The leaders of China and Russia formalized on Friday (4) an alliance that has been gaining strength in recent years against Western policies embodied in the US agenda, touted as an “ideologized approach to the Cold War”.

Thus, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin agreed in a statement to denounce the expansion of NATO (Western military alliance) that is at the heart of the serious crisis underway in Ukraine and also the American military pacts in the Indo-Pacific region.

These are the most flamboyant, but not the only, examples of the 5,300-word Russian text released by the Kremlin of what both leaders called the “boundless friendship” between Beijing and Moscow. Something “unprecedented”, in Putin’s voice.

Showy for exemplifying the main strategic problems affecting, respectively, the largest country in the world that formed the center of the Soviet Union and the second largest economy in the world, a communist dictatorship adept at the market economy.

“The parties oppose the further expansion of NATO and urge the alliance to abandon the ideological approach of the Cold War,” it reads. Putin has about 130,000 troops deployed around Ukraine’s borders, a move that initially appeared to aim to resolve the status of the conflict in the east of the country between pro-Russian rebels and Kiev.

The issue turned into something bigger: the definition of a European peace in terms acceptable to the Kremlin, which does not include Ukraine as part of NATO and even the presence of offensive weapons in Eastern European members of the club. US and alliance rejected the ultimatum, and the stalemate continues.

In the Chinese environment, the Cold War 2.0 moved in reaction to Xi’s greater assertiveness has already caused several conflicts with the US: trade and tariff war, dispute over Hong Kong’s autonomy, provocations on the sea routes that Beijing considers its own and the threat from China. to take Taiwan.

“The parties oppose the formation of closed bloc structures and opposing camps in the Asia-Pacific region, and remain highly vigilant about the negative impact of the US strategy in the Indo-Pacific for stability and peace in the region,” the text reads.

Last year, Joe Biden’s government formalized a military pact with Australia and the United Kingdom and revived the Quad alliance (with Australians, Japanese and Indians) against China.

If anyone had doubts about the rapport between Xi and Putin, the leaders decided to draw their intentions. They include concerted efforts against “color revolutions,” the generic and media-friendly name for what Moscow calls coups to overthrow pro-Kremlin governments on the former Soviet periphery.

They took place in places like Ukraine and Georgia, and they didn’t end well by any means. China accuses the US of exactly the same thing in sponsoring the pro-democracy movements in Hong Kong, which were crushed with an iron fist after the 2019 uprising, and the Taiwanese government — on the island Xi calls his own, air raids with planes. Chinese military are weekly events.

Xi and Putin’s meeting took place before the opening of the Winter Olympics in Beijing, an event that was boycotted diplomatically by the West. Just over 20 leaders will attend the opening, but the Russian is the star.

With that, the strongly autocratic Russian government and the Chinese dictatorship officially join hands. There is no mention in the document of practical aspects already underway, such as the growing military cooperation between the powers and major energy projects.

They are the key and also the limit of membership. From a military point of view, Russia and China are historical rivals, and it would be surprising if they reached a formal, integral alliance, such as the one that exists between Moscow and the Belarus dictatorship.

Economically, Xi’s political deference to Putin embodies the perceived risk in Moscow that Russia could become China’s energy province, providing cheap natural gas through a $400 billion project called the Siberian Force — the second pipeline. of the network should be announced soon.

For the Russian, however, it is a unique way out. If American pressure on countries like Germany, which is delaying the opening of a new gas pipeline directly linking it to Russia, or a rupture due to a war in Ukraine occurs, the European market could close to Putin’s gas.

China, whose annual consumption of the product is expected to exceed that of the whole of Europe by the end of the decade, can offer a lifeline for the survival of this central part of the Russian economy, which has otherwise faced well the Western sanctions that have hit it. since Putin annexed Crimea in 2014.

That year, a mockery of “color revolution,” more violent and less romantic than the 2000s versions, toppled Kiev’s pro-Kremlin government. The annexation and the promotion of civil war in eastern Ukraine were the immediate responses of Moscow, which later participated in a fragile ceasefire that Putin now wants to see implemented as a peace plan.

Their meeting was highly choreographed and, despite both leaders being known for taking extreme care not to contract Covid-19, there was no masking or distancing. It is their first meeting since the pandemic, and the 38th since Xi took office in 2012 — Putin has been in power since Aug. 9, 1999, when he became prime minister for the first time.

In the published text, an excerpt attributed to Xi summarizes several speeches made by the Chinese in recent years, in which he talks about his particular vision of democracy. “We are working together to bring true multilateralism to life. Upholding the real spirit of democracy serves as a credible foundation for uniting the world in the coming crises, and advocating for equality.”

The view, contradictory to Western eyes as it was held by the leader of a dictatorship, is shared by Putin. Both denounce the US defense of democratic values ​​as hypocritical, as there are plenty of examples (Iraq, Afghanistan, etc.) that it can be forced by military means, generating disasters.

The main difference between the two so far is the external approach. Xi uses economic instruments, while Putin does not hesitate to flex his military muscle: in recent years, his troops have been in wars or interventions in places such as Georgia, Ukraine, Syria, Libya, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. Moscow still has a nuclear arsenal rivaling the American one, while China prepares an expansion in the field.

On the western side, the everyday example of repression in the two rivals is enough to make the accusation of hypocrisy in the opposite direction. Cold War 2.0, the China-US clash that geopolitically defines the 21st century, appears to have just officially gained a third player, hailing from the conflict’s first incarnation.

Source: Folha

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