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Tensions on the Ukrainian border: Can Russia finally shut off the gas tap in Europe? (see)


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Two people who are well acquainted with energy, Andreas Andrianopoulos and Giannis Maniatis, spoke to SKAI about the situation that is taking place against the background of the tension on the Russian-Ukrainian border.

How likely do you think it is for Russia to close the gas tap in Europe, and what would be the consequences?

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Giannis Maniatis: It is certain that Europe will experience difficult times, at least until the summer. Because today we are talking about its warehouses are half empty. And Russia supplies so much gas to Europe that it is about 40% dependent on it. So if things go awry and there are no extra loads of liquefied natural gas and cuts in the consumption of gas industries, then things will be very bad.

Andreas Andrianopoulos: I do not think we can get there because Russia has no interest in closing the tap. Do not forget that even during the most difficult periods of the Cold War, no faucet had ever been turned off. Why; For a very simple reason. What for us is a loss of energy, for Russia is a loss of revenue. It accounts for a large portion of its national income, the money it receives from oil and gas exports. Consequently it is not something easy that he can do just to do it. And I would not want him to do that and I do not think we can get there, Russia does not want that. Nor does he want to throw it. Russia basically wants to keep NATO away from its borders.

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In this case, how much can Greece be affected and what options does it have?

Giannis Maniatis: Greece currently receives most of its natural gas, Russian gas, through the Turk stream pipeline, which does not pass through Ukraine, and we do not know if this flow will be affected. On the other hand, Revythousa is ready to receive new shipments of liquefied natural gas, so I believe that especially for Greece the effects will not be as acute as in countries such as Austria, Lithuania and Finland. But all these are assumptions until we see how they will develop.

Andreas Andrianopoulos: The problem stems from the fact that Russia has a paranoid insecurity about the structure of its borders. You should know that Russia has no natural borders. With the West but also with the other sides of its borders.

That is, there are no big big mountains, big oceans, inaccessible rivers, big lakes. It’s all plain. When he sees NATO approaching its borders so much, he feels a paranoia, insecurity. And the West must understand that as well. Take it into account and behave accordingly.

Can we make an estimate of where the price of gas can go?

Giannis Maniatis: How much more its price will rise again depends on how much there will be disruption in the markets, mainly of liquefied natural gas, which also determines the final price.

How likely do you think we are to finally have a war or even an episode?

Andreas Andrianopoulos: I hope we do not get there. I hope so, because you know that many times a war takes place when virtually no one really wants it. But the times are such that at some point, no one can go back. I hope we do not get there. Because unfortunately even here we have arrived, we have arrived without any real reason that should lead to a conflict.

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