Military incursions are not announced, say those who choose to downplay the possibility of a Russian attack on Ukraine.
Moscow is bluffing, many Europeans point out in a similarly – moderately reassuring spirit – but it is not entirely clear whether they are saying what they really believe based on the information they have received or just what they would like to say.
Moscow is not bluffing – Putin could risk a war, say NATO Americans, but on a different wavelength from NATO Europeans, or at least a portion of them.
We do not intend to invade Ukraine, says Moscow, which has amassed an unprecedented number of troops near the post-Cold War border with Ukraine.
A diplomatic escalation of the crisis is preferable, everyone agrees, Russians and NATO members, but at a time when both are strengthening their military presence, some in Eastern Europe and some in western Russia.
NATO rejuvenated by escalating tensions with Russia, say Financial Times
Putin wins without doing anything, Bloomberg disagrees.
To a large extent contradictory to each other, all of the above obviously can not apply at the same time.
At the same time, however, although contradictory, the approaches of those involved come to a common conclusion about the undeclared war (or declared in areas such as Donbass) that is already raging.
The opposing camps are already “fighting”, but not with weapons but with scripts, announcements, letters and leaks in the media.
The Americans claimed a few days ago that the Russian side was preparing a big provocation, with the release of a directed video of an alleged Ukrainian attack on Russian-speakers in eastern Ukraine, which would “legitimize” a Russian military intervention. The Americans spoke publicly about such a scenario, in an effort to prevent it, thus affecting the profile of the Russian side.
Similar scenarios, however, for threatening provocations of the opponent, have been publicly denounced in the past and: Ukraine, Russia, the United Kingdom, etc., in an attempt to possibly prevent-exorcise them or even use them as a means of slandering “Malicious” dispositions of the adversary before the international community.
In the same context, scenarios have been published at the same time for the Russians who may cut off the flow of natural gas to the Old Continent and the Westerners who are preparing for such an eventuality by looking for alternative sources of power.
In such an environment of conflicting odds, it should come as no surprise that Bloomberg’s “Russian invasion of Ukraine” headline, which was mistakenly published as one of the possible scenarios already worked out by the US news agency, was withdrawn, giving but the opportunity on the Russian side to denounce the “climate” created by the West with their repeated “aggressive” statements.
If, however, the scenarios could be “exorcised” before they were put into practice, through their early publication, then the possibility of a Russian military invasion of Ukraine should have already been ruled out.
Who can say for sure? Putin himself, most say, but developments are taking place on all fronts.
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