German security authorities are on high alert following the Hamas atrocities on October 7 and Israel’s response. The agencies for the Protection of the Constitution have multiplied the shifts of their officers and the police are forced to work overtime. There is great concern that the conflict in the Middle East could spread to Europe. Jihadi circles in particular are under increased surveillance. It is clear, and it could not be otherwise, that the case of Palestine has an impact on European societies as well. When it comes to the issues of occupying the holy places in Jerusalem and solidarity with the Palestinians, the entire Muslim world appears united. And this is also seen in the demonstrations, where citizens from different countries and origins come down together with Palestinian flags to demonstrate, as was seen to a great extent recently in London with 300,000 demonstrators. Late in the afternoon it was announced the arrest of two young alleged jihadist minors, aged 15 and 16, on charges of planning and preparing a terrorist attack on a Christmas market or synagogue in Cologne using an explosive device or van. The attack would probably take place on December 1st. The 16-year-old Russian was arrested in Brandenburg and the 15-year-old in North Rhine-Westphalia.

Al Qaeda and the Islamic State

According to an analysis by German agencies for the protection of the Constitution, the risk of terrorist attacks in Germany has increased significantly. The greatest danger comes not from Hamas supporters of the pro-Iranian Hezbollah, who are rather reluctant to make open and public statements and events, but from terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda and the Islamic State. The distinguishing feature of such organizations is that they succeed in inciting more young people by presenting the victims of Israeli bombings and the humanitarian situation of the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip as evidence for the supposed strategy of the West against Muslims. This development puts a strain on the work of the intelligence services at a time when, as they themselves at least admit, they are already under great pressure in other areas. The number of politically motivated crimes increased last year for the 4th time in a row and reached a new record. Raids and arrests in the environment of the far-right “Reich Citizens” and investigations of violent far-right extremists are just two examples of what is currently preoccupying the country’s constitutional protection officials and police departments.

“The risk of attacks has reached a new level,” the head of the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution, Thomas Haldenwang, said earlier in the day in Berlin. “The risk is real and higher than it has been for a long time,” Syntagma is working with all its might to thwart possible plans against the security of Jews, Israeli institutions and large gatherings.” As he explained, his Service has long observed the apparent intention of Islamists to carry out attacks in the West. In fact, he has repeatedly emphasized that the risk of an Islamist attack exists in Germany “every day”. However, due to the polarization caused by Israel’s war with Hamas, he has now given this threat a “new quality”.

Lone wolves and the power of the image

Another indication from the wide range of jihadists is that the Constitutional Protection agency is observing calls for attacks and “tying” the extremist groups of Al Qaeda and the Islamic State in the conflict in the Middle East. This has the consequence that “the risk of a terrorist act confronts emotionally charged people, who may act alone by very simple means”. Beno Köpfer, head of Islamic extremism and terrorism at the Baden-Württemberg Constitutional Protection agency, says that in extreme cases, it could lead to individual extremists, so-called lone wolves, who feel they still have to secure “their place in heaven ” to take action. Authorities are particularly concerned about single men who have come to the country as refugees in recent years with high expectations but who have never been able to acclimatize. “Men who come from patriarchal structures are particularly at risk here,” says Kepfer. “When the whole family puts their hopes in one son, the weight of failure for him is hard to bear.” And when psychological instability is added to this, the risk of becoming a “lone wolf” is even greater

The Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung makes special reference to the power of images. For Israel’s war against Hamas, a large number of images of dead children and crying mothers are circulating, fueling anger and hatred. Compared to previous wars in Gaza, it’s not just the sheer scale of the destruction. Social media also works differently today. The way videos are presented through TikTok more directly evokes people’s emotional reflexes. Content flows faster and without any control. Constituency Protection officials are speaking today of a “high risk in the abstract” because there are a large number of people emotionally burdened by the war in Gaza.