Entire districts are buried under rubble, hundreds of thousands of people have been displaced and live in indescribable conditions. Pressure on the Israeli military to soon end the war in populated areas is mounting. What are the prospects for the future? Will the Israelis take over the Gaza Strip again? Some 18 years after the withdrawal of the Israeli army, many residents fear a new Israeli occupation. However, US President Joe Biden does not want to allow this.

“There will be no Israeli occupation”

Israel itself has no interest in occupying or permanently exercising sovereign rights in the region, as Mark Regev, the Israeli government’s security adviser, argues. However, he stresses that Israel must retain control of security there after the war.

“Once the leadership of Hamas is defeated, the Israeli army will not remain in the Gaza Strip itself,” explains Kobi Michael of Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies (INSS). “Instead the soldiers will be stationed at Gaza’s outer border and will enter if there are intelligence indications of terrorist plans or other threats. Just like it’s already happening in the West Bank,” says Michael. The Israeli army regularly raids the cities of Nablus and Jenin, which are considered strongholds of terrorist groups. Violent clashes with casualties occur all the time. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also stresses that his country wants to maintain military control of the Gaza Strip indefinitely. “We’ve seen what happens when we don’t have him,” he said, referring to Oct. 7, when terrorists invaded Israel from there and murdered more than 1,200 people in gruesome fashion. They also kidnapped about 240 hostages in the Gaza Strip. Israel responded with massive airstrikes and launched a ground offensive in late October. According to the Islamist Hamas, nearly 16,000 Palestinians have been killed so far in the bombing. The numbers cannot currently be independently verified.

Gaza Strip with a buffer zone?

After the war Israel wants to create a dead zone in the border area of ​​the Gaza Strip. “Israel will need a protective shell,” says Mark Regev, the Israeli government’s security adviser. “There will no longer be a situation where Hamas people will be at the border and be able to cross and kill our citizens.” However, Regev did not elaborate on this seat belt. Michael from the INSS suspects that Israel will create a dead zone along the Gaza Strip that Palestinians will not be able to enter. “It will extend about 700 or 800 meters inside the Gaza Strip,” says the expert. “This dead zone will mainly affect farmers because there is agriculture in this area, it is not inhabited.”

Israeli “no” to two states

Of course, the US and Israel’s Western allies want a two-state solution that provides for an independent Palestinian state next to Israel. The Palestinian people need a “clear political perspective,” the White House insists. Kobi Michael of the INSS, on the other hand, gives little chance for such a solution for now, pointing out that the majority of Palestinians support armed struggle against Israel. “Who should Israel talk to for a peaceful solution?” he asks. “Israel already feels that its existence is threatened.” According to Michael, a separate Palestinian state would fuel these fears even more. The construction of Israeli settlements in the occupied West The West Bank, making territorial cohesion impossible for the Palestinians, is also seen as a major obstacle to a peace settlement between the two sides.Since 2014, there have been no serious negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians.

It would have a role the Palestinian Authority in Gaza?

Hamas violently ousted President Mahmoud Abbas’s Ramallah-based Palestinian Authority (PA) in the occupied West Bank from the Gaza Strip in 2007. President Biden wants the Palestinian Authority to regain control there after the war. However, Netanyahu strongly rejects this. And as Israeli political expert Avi Issacharov points out in the Jediot Achronot newspaper, there is no international actor willing to take over the responsibility of administering the Gaza Strip. So the Palestinian Authority is the only option. However, there is the alternative of the Palestinian Authority not taking control under the leadership of Abbas, but with a different combination of people. Kobi Michael, on the other hand, favors a renewal, a reorganization of the PA, which should then be committed to peace. Reorganization could therefore take place under the auspices of an alliance of Arab states, such as the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. “But this will be a long process.” Isakharov speculates that it may even be years before a stable solution is found for the Gaza Strip. For his part, Abbas hinted that he would be willing to take responsibility for the Gaza Strip, but only as part of a two-state solution. On the other hand, it could be difficult for the Palestinian population to rally behind Abbas. Large sections of the Palestinian population are calling for his resignation. Abbas’ return to the Gaza Strip with the help of Israel would be an insult to many Palestinians.

“Declaration of War”

But there are also red lines. Far-right Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich is calling for the “voluntary migration” of Palestinians from the Gaza Strip. The countries that have allied with Israel strongly react to this. Germany, for example, has criticized Smotrich’s statements as unacceptable. President Biden stated that the US “will under no circumstances allow the forced relocation of Palestinians from the Gaza Strip or the West Bank.” Jordan also drew a red line on the issue, making it clear that if Israel were to consider expelling Palestinians from the Gaza Strip, it would amount to a declaration of war.

Michael from the INSS estimates that the war in the Gaza Strip could last weeks or even months. Israeli government security adviser Mark Regev recently said that Hamas still controls large parts of the Gaza Strip and is far from being defeated. All this does not bode well for the beleaguered people of Gaza. So, how the situation will shape up when the war is over remains for now at least still open.