An eventual war in Ukraine has stirred up the geopolitical and diplomatic chess in Europe in recent months, with effects that are already being felt among the continent’s population.
At least 62% of the inhabitants of seven countries that together represent more than half of the population of the European Union (EU) defend that NATO, the western military alliance led by the United States, support Ukraine if Russia invades. A share of 60% says that the bloc itself should come to Kiev’s defense, and more than 50% think that Washington also has a role to play.
The results are from a survey by the European Center for Foreign Affairs (ECFR) released on Wednesday. About 5,500 Europeans from seven countries —Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Romania and Sweden—were heard at the end of January.
The survey showed that the crisis may be concentrated in Eastern Europe, but that the population of the continent is certain that it will spill over to other places. Concern is growing because many believe an invasion will, in fact, take place, despite speculation that Moscow is threatening its neighbor just to bargain with historic demands and drive the West away, unwilling to pay the price of yet another war.
In Poland, which borders Ukraine, 73% said they thought a Russian invasion was likely or even very likely later this year. In Romania, another neighbor, this share is 64%. The most skeptical of this possibility are the Finns – 44% said they think Moscow will carry out the threat speculated for months.
Although they say they support Kiev in the midst of the conflict, most respondents are certain that the Russian advance represents a threat to Europe’s security on different fronts, the main one being energy supply. More than 60% say that this would be the main development for other European countries.
The matter is a critical issue for Germany, until now a secondary diplomatic agent in the conflict, which is linked to Russia by the Nord Stream 2 undersea gas pipeline.
German officials say they are willing to pay the price of economic consequences to defend Kiev, while they have already refused to send weapons to the Ukrainians. In the survey, 59% of German respondents pointed to energy shortages as a risk for their country in the midst of the crisis in Eastern Europe.
The potential migration crisis triggered by an invasion is also among Europeans’ concerns. At least 48% would be concerned about the massive influx of migrants on the continent, the survey suggests. In Poland, there is the biggest fear: 77% say that the country would suffer the consequences of a wave of refugees.
Knowing the cost of conflict, however, does not seem to dampen the defense that most respondents make of Kiev. For 46%, dealing with refugees would be worth the risk of defending the country in the face of an invasion by the Putin government. Bearing higher energy prices would also be a worthwhile consequence for advocating on behalf of the Eastern European nation to 44% of respondents.
Tensions on the Ukrainian border have been raging for months since the Kremlin concentrated more than 100,000 troops on the border with its neighbour. Diplomatic negotiations between the government of Vladimir Putin and that of Joe Biden failed, and figures such as the French Emmanuel Macron and the German Olaf Scholz are slowly entering the dialogue tables that seek to establish peace in Ukraine.
The US moved troops to Eastern Europe. NATO, in late January, said it would not move its troops to Ukraine in the event of an invasion. That’s because, justified the Norwegian secretary-general of the alliance, Jens Stoltenberg, Ukraine is not a member country, even if it is a “highly valued partner”.
On Wednesday, Pope Francis spoke again about the crisis, describing the eventual war as “madness”.
To the British newspaper The Guardian, the director and co-founder of ECFR, Mark Leonard, one of the authors of the research, said that the results found point to a geopolitical awakening in Europe.
The study concludes that a potential Russian invasion would be interpreted by Europeans not only as an attack on Kiev, but on the continent’s own security order. “If Putin threatened Ukraine to force Europeans to think about the feasibility of European security, he succeeded,” the researchers say in the conclusion. “But judging by the results, the Russian president might be surprised, as most Europeans seem ready to defend Ukraine.”
