The presidents of Russia and Ukraine, Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyrecently gave long press conferences, during which they took stock of the past year and set their goals for 2024.

Here’s what to expect next year from the nearly two-year-old war between Russia and Ukraine, according to what the leaders of the two countries said and cited by Agence France-Presse.

War of attrition

Zelenskiy has attributed the failure of Ukraine’s summer counteroffensive to a lack of ammunition and air superiority. Shortages persist as a war of attrition restarts, with Russia once again taking the lead.

“We need support because we simply don’t have ammunition,” the Ukrainian president said, refusing to say more about the plans for 2024 of the Ukrainian army, which has gone on the defensive.

Putin, for his part, expressed satisfaction that Russian troops are “improving their positions almost everywhere along the contact line.” But he admitted that Ukraine was making advances on the southern bank of the Dnieper river, although he added that Ukrainian troops were being “annihilated” by Russian artillery.

Western fatigue

Putin, whose re-election to the presidency of Russia in 2024 seems certain, also referred to the reduction of Western aid to Ukraine, the subject of political disputes in both the US and the EU. According to him, this support “is in danger of ending”. and “seems to be slowly ending.”

Zelensky said he was confident that aid would continue to arrive in his country and that the US “will not betray” Ukraine. Nevertheless, he commented that he fears a change in policy from Washington, in the event that Donald Trump wins the November 2024 presidential election.

“If the policy of the next president, whoever he is, is different towards Ukraine, colder or more economical, then I believe that these messages will have a very big impact on the development of the war,” assessed the Ukrainian president.

Lack of men

As the shortage of men at the frontline becomes increasingly apparent, the Ukrainian president referred to an army plan to enlist “an additional 450,000 to 500,000 people” in 2024, without elaborating further.

At the same time, Kiev wants to produce “a million drones next year” to compensate for the lack of ammunition.

Putin estimated that any new mobilization, after that of September 2022, “is not necessary”. According to him, Russia managed to voluntarily enlist 486,000 men in 2023, an effort that is expected to continue.

The Russian president also vowed to continue building up the military’s capabilities as Russia shifts its economy toward the war effort and has reportedly received large quantities of ammunition from North Korea.

No negotiations

Putin emphasized that peace will be possible when all of Moscow’s goals have been met, namely “the de-Nazification of Ukraine, its demilitarization,” but also the adoption by Kiev of a “neutral regime.”

As he said, Moscow and Kiev had agreed on these issues during their first negotiations in Istanbul at the beginning of the war, talks that were later abandoned.

“There are other possibilities, either to reach an agreement or to solve the problem by force. And that’s what we’re trying to do,” he emphasized.

Zelensky reiterated that his goal is to regain control of all Ukrainian territories seized by Russia, including the Crimean peninsula, which Moscow annexed in 2014. “The strategy cannot be changed,” he warned.

He also rejected the possibility of negotiations with Russia. “Today is not a duty. I do not see a request in this direction from Russia. I don’t see it from her actions. In her rhetoric I notice only audacity,” he complained.

What will be the end?

Putin promised Russians that “victory will be ours.” In his opinion, Russia now has “enough margin of safety” to “only move forward”. Russian public opinion is “largely supportive” of the war effort and the country’s economy “has a reserve of strength and stability.”

On the other hand, Zelensky asked the Ukrainians not to lose their “determination”. He also stressed that he doesn’t know if the war will end in 2024: “I don’t think anyone knows the answer” to that.