Fears of conflict spreading throughout the Middle East began to emerge from the first day of the start of the Israel-Gaza war. As the days pass and the war rages on, these fears multiply. But in reality, neither Washington nor Tehran seem willing to conflict in the Gaza Strip to spark a wider war in the region. But one miscalculation could be enough to start a new regional conflict just two years after the United States ended its 20-year war in the Middle East and South Asia, according to a New York Times report.

In the seven weeks since Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, Iranian-backed militias have unleashed more than 70 rocket and drone attacks against US troops in Iraq and Syria. The Pentagon, for its part, responded with a barrage of airstrikes, killing at least 15 people, according to US officials.

So far, none of the US retaliatory strikes have escalated. The Pentagon said last Tuesday that the attacks had abated at least temporarily, but US military commanders and intelligence agencies continue to closely monitor Iran and the groups it supports, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and militias in Iraq and Syria. Syria.

Officials believe Iran is using the militia attacks to warn the United States of what could happen in the region if Israel expands its attacks by hitting Hezbollah or if Israel targets Iran’s nuclear program, as it did in past.

Israel and Hezbollah have repeatedly exchanged shelling along Israel’s northern border with Lebanon since the war began. A US official said the Biden administration wants an end to the war with Israel agreeing to an end to the skirmishes. But the official did not specify what the administration was doing to prevent Israel from starting a two-front war. For its part, Iran accuses the US of only paying lip service when it says it does not want the war to escalate.

Since the first days of the conflict, Tehran and Washington have exchanged multiple messages saying neither side wants to escalate the war, Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian said in an interview. “We understand that the US does not want the war to spread, but we believe that the US wants the war to intensify,” he stressed. “If the US continues its military, political and economic support to Israel and helps manage Israel’s military attacks on Palestinian civilians, then it must face the consequences,” he concluded.

Since the October 7 attacks, intelligence officials have briefed President Biden on the risk of a wider war with Iran. For weeks, intelligence agencies have estimated that Iran wants to avoid a wider conflict — an assessment that, at least for now, remains the case. Publicly, the Biden administration has maintained that it does not want tensions to escalate. In the wake of the Hamas attacks, the Pentagon sought to send that deterrent message by sending two aircraft carriers and escorting warships — one to the eastern Mediterranean Sea, the other near the Persian Gulf — as well as a group of Marines and dozens of other warplanes. .

But US officials blame Iran and the militias for a barrage of rocket and drone attacks against US forces in Iraq and Syria. The question that now arises is whether Joe Biden can ultimately prevent Israel from expanding the conflict.

Some Republicans in Congress complain that the US military response has been insufficient, essentially inviting Iran and its allies to take more aggressive action.

The United States currently has 2,500 troops in Iraq and 900 in Syria, mostly to help local forces fight the remnants of the Islamic State group. More than 60 US soldiers in Iraq and Syria have been injured in attacks by Iranian-backed militias, about half of them from traumatic brain injuries. Pentagon officials say all troops are now back on duty.

Senior US military officials say the US has luckily escaped the worst. What remains to be seen is whether this luck will continue to avoid the worst in the wider region.