Nearly half the world’s population—about 49 percent, according to AFP estimates—will go to the polls in 2024.

About thirty countries will elect their president, while nearly 20 others are scheduled to hold parliamentary elections.

All of these contests will take place in a turbulent international context, with the Russo-Ukrainian conflict and the war between Hamas and Israel, while facing the risk — more or less significant depending on the country — of disinformation as well as manipulation linked to artificial intelligence. (AI), according to observers. Here’s a rundown of the most notable picks:

USA: Rematch?

On November 5, tens of millions of Americans will go to the polls to elect the “great electors”, charged with choosing the occupant of the White House. This 60th US presidential election will likely feel like déjà vu, with an expected rematch between outgoing Democratic President Joe Biden, 81, and his Republican presidential predecessor, 77-year-old Donald Trump. Disinformation is expected to be one of the issues that will dominate the campaign — a headache from previous elections that ended with Trump supporters storming the US Capitol and trying to force Congress to not recognize Biden’s election victory. Trump is in the process of establishing the Republican candidate for the presidency as the absolute favorite despite the multiple and pending criminal proceedings against him. On the other hand, Biden’s campaign suffered another blow after the Republican-led House of Representatives voted in December to open a formal impeachment inquiry into whether the sitting president profited while serving as Barack Obama’s vice president (between 2009-2017), from his son’s business ventures abroad.

Putin is flirting with another six-year term

With his confidence boosted after his troops maintain their positions in Ukraine two years after the war began, Russian President Vladimir Putin hopes to extend his 23-year rule by six years in March elections. On December 8, he announced that he would run for a fifth term, which would last five years and keep him in power until 2030. In 2020, Putin amended the Constitution to effectively allow him to remain in power until 2036— that is, to rule for more years than Stalin. With the war in Ukraine being used to silence dissent and the opposition, and with his greatest enemy, Alexei Navalny, in prison serving a 19-year sentence, there is little chance he will face obstacles to re-election.

Modi’s big power play

Nearly a billion Indians will go to the polls in April and May, when the world’s most populous country goes to the polls with Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his nationalist Hindu party, the BJP, seeking a third term. Modi’s political career and success are based on the support he has from the country’s one billion-plus Hindus — analysts say — and on cultivating hostility toward the large Muslim minority. Despite the crackdown on civil liberties under his leadership, Modi heads into the election as the clear favourite, with supporters crediting him with boosting India’s standing on the international stage.

Populists in the EU

More than 400 million citizens with the right to vote will be invited next June to elect the new members of the European Parliament. The European elections are feared to be an opportunity for far-right populists, who have luck on their side after the victory of Wilders’ far-right, anti-European, anti-Islamic Freedom Party (PVV) in November’s Dutch election and last year’s victory by far-right Sisters of Italy by Georgia Meloni. Brussels can, however, be optimistic about Poland, where former European Council President Donald Tusk has returned to power with a purely pro-European agenda.

First female president in Mexico?

A left-wing former mayor of the capital and a businesswoman with indigenous roots will both attempt to make history in Mexico in June as they look to become the first female president in the country’s history of male chauvinism. Former Mexico City mayor Claudia Sheinbaum, 61, will be the candidate of outgoing President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s ruling Movement for National Renaissance (MORENA, nationalist left) party, while her archenemy Socil Galvez, 60, nominated candidate of the “Broad Front” of three opposition factions.

Iran: elections 18 months after Mahsha Amini’s death

Parliamentary elections will be held on March 1, 18 months after Mahsa Amini’s death. The death of this young Iranian-Kurdish woman after she was arrested by morality police for not wearing the headscarf properly sparked months of mass protests against political and religious leaders. A movement that suffered harsh repression, with hundreds of deaths and thousands of arrests.

The previous elections of 2020 were characterized by the mass exclusion of reformist and moderate candidates effectively turning the process into a showdown between conservatives and ultraconservatives.

Senegal: elections under tension?

While about ten presidential elections are scheduled for 2024 in Africa — the scene of eight coups in three years — Senegal’s election, scheduled for February 25, could be marked by tensions.

President Macky Sall, in power since 2012, in September appointed his prime minister, Amandou Ba, a candidate from his camp, a choice that was contested internally.

On the opposition side, the candidacy of Usman Sonko, who came third in the 2019 presidential election, remains pending. On December 14, the Supreme Court of Senegal ordered his reinstatement on the electoral rolls. The case will be reviewed.

Sonko was convicted in early June and jailed on various charges, sparking protests and violent incidents. Sonko himself has alleged a “conspiracy” to sabotage his candidacy, which the government denies.

Venezuela: will the opposition be able to challenge the Chavista regime?

In Venezuela, embroiled in a severe political and economic crisis that has driven more than seven million people into exile, socialist Nicolas Maduro, successor to Hugo Chavez (1999-2013), is aiming for a third term in the second half of 2024. .

His re-election in 2018, widely seen as fraudulent, was not recognized by many countries, including the United States.

A large part of the opposition, long divided, rallied behind liberal Maria Corina Machado, despite her exclusion.

The United States, which in October eased a six-month oil embargo on Venezuela, owner of the world’s largest reserves of black gold, is calling for the lifting of the embargo on rivals, including that of Machado.