More than half of the world’s people live in countries that will hold national elections in 2024, the first time this milestone has been reached. Based on recent voter participation patterns, nearly 2 billion people in more than 70 countries will go to the polls. Polls will be set up from Britain to Bangladesh, from India to Indonesia. However, what sounds like a triumphant year for democracy will be the opposite, according to an article in the Economist.

Many elections will strengthen liberal governors. Others will reward the corrupt and incompetent. By far the most important contest, the US presidential election, will be so poisonous and polarizing that it will throw a “veil” over world politics. Amidst a backdrop of conflict from Ukraine to the Middle East, America’s future direction—and with it the world order that American leadership has so far underwritten—will be at stake. It will be a nervous and dangerous year.

Some elections will obviously be “ballistic”. In Belarus or Rwanda, for example, the only question is how close to 100% the vote share of the establishment will be. Having illegally changed the constitution to abolish term limits in 2020, Vladimir Putin will undoubtedly win a third consecutive term (and fifth overall) as Russia’s president.

Most votes will go to Asia. Its largest democracies – Bangladesh, India and Indonesia – will go to the polls. Under Narendra Modi, India enjoys remarkable economic and geopolitical success, even as the prime minister condones anti-Muslim chauvinism and the dismantling of institutional guarantees. Indonesian President Joko Widodo appears to be focused on consolidating a political dynasty. Bangladesh has already taken an authoritarian turn, with opposition leaders jailed and no dissent tolerated.

Africa will be the continent with the most elections, but its voters are increasingly disillusioned with the way democracy works. Coups are becoming more frequent: nine regimes have seized power by force since 2020. Polls show that more and more Africans could be willing to agree to a military government. The South African election will be a reminder of the series of disappointments. Three decades after the ANC took power in the first post-apartheid elections, it is set to return to power in a country plagued by corruption, crime and unemployment.

However, the news is not all bad. Mexico will elect its first female president. British voters will (finally) have a choice between two capable candidates. After 14 years of Tory rule, a Labor victory is likely, but few outside Britain will notice much of a change.

Meanwhile, some elections will have a disproportionate impact beyond their country’s borders. Whether Taiwan’s 18 million voters choose the Democratic Progressive Party or the Kuomintang (the most pro-China opposition) is expected to affect relations with Beijing and, by extension, Sino-American relations.

Nothing, however, will compare to the US election, either in terms of grim spectacle or potential consequences. It’s hard to believe that the most likely outcome is a rematch between two old men who a majority of voters would prefer not to run.

The very candidacy of Donald Trump undermines American democracy. The fact that the Republican Party will nominate a man who tried to overturn the results of the previous presidential election “clouds” America as a democratic beacon. His preference for strongmen, especially Putin, suggests that his bid to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 24 hours will be to Ukraine’s detriment.

Trump may not be the nominee, and if he is, he may well lose. But his chances of a second term are alarmingly high. The consequences could be disastrous – for democracy and for the world.