Following the latest moves by US troops and Washington calling on all US citizens to leave Ukraine, similar instructions have been issued by Germany and other European governments. The United States estimates that as soon as a Russian attack occurs, which may even include air strikes, it will be too late for repatriation. But those directly involved, both Russians and Ukrainians, do not take kindly to the dramatic warnings from Washington. Both sides are talking about panic scenarios, and Russia sees an organized “propaganda operation” behind US pressure.
The situation in Russia
In the Russian media these days, the most important issue is not the developments in Ukraine, but the … Beijing Winter Olympics and especially the great discrimination for Russian athletes, but also the doping scandal that suddenly arose with a “protagonist” the 15-year-old skating athlete Kamila Valieva. The latest issues in the bulletins include responses from the Donetsk war zone, with residents saying they were “concerned about the possible advance of Ukrainian troops”. A political comment follows, in which German Foreign Minister Analena Berbock is called upon to take a closer look at “human suffering, but not only on the Ukrainian side.”
The United Nations estimates that more than 14,000 people have been killed so far in the war zone. Most of the casualties are reported in areas controlled by pro-Russian separatists. Locals say that in the event of a Ukrainian attack, they hope that Vladimir Putin’s troops will intervene “to save them.” About 125,000 Russian troops are already on standby.
The situation in Ukraine
The President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky points out that since 2014 his country is in a state of constant confrontation with Russia. However, he argues that the escalation scenarios cited by the West are more harmful than beneficial to his country. “Our panic is the best ally for our enemies,” he said.
All indications are that Washington has not coordinated its actions with Kiev itself. On Friday, the Security Council of Ukraine met in Kharkov, just 30 kilometers from the border with Russia, but did not take any decisions on emergency measures. “When the enemy’s plans are published, then they are useless,” Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malikhar said on Facebook. Everyday life in Kiev itself does not bode well. People are on the streets, cafes are full, street musicians complete the picture.
What does Putin want to achieve?
In Moscow, President Vladimir Putin starred in telephone diplomacy. Does he really want to invade Ukraine? Njet, no, he says to all his interlocutors, but in the West no one really believes him. In fact, Putin has stressed to his American counterpart Joe Biden, but also to French President Emanuel Macron, that he wants to pressure Ukraine to implement commitments stemming from the agreement reached so far on peace in the Donbass Valley. Moscow is outraged by statements by the Ukrainian president that it does not take the agreement seriously. However, top-level consultations continue, with German Chancellor Olaf Solz expected in Kiev on Monday and in Moscow the next day.
Putin is expected to remind his interlocutor of Russia’s persistent request for “security guarantees” from NATO. Moscow feels threatened by NATO and wants to prevent the expansion of the Atlantic Alliance in Ukraine. In recent years, the numerous NATO military exercises, as well as the supply of weapons to Ukraine by the Americans, as well as by other Western governments, have irritated the Russian military. The increased military presence on the Russian side of the border is seen as a means of pushing for tangible results in the “security guarantees” consultation.
What does Russia gain from a war?
Experts estimate that a military confrontation would only have disadvantages for Russia. Vladimir Putin even accuses the United States of using Ukraine as a subordinate to serve its own geopolitical goals and destabilize Russia. But Europe would also be affected by the shockwave of a war. Already today the Russian and Ukrainian currencies are falling against the dollar and investors are reluctant to operate in both countries. Particularly for the Russian economy, which relies on exports of raw materials, the economic consequences would be painful. “Putin wants to gain respect by demonstrating military might,” said Andrei Klesnikov, a researcher at the Carnegie Center in Moscow. “But it is not going to win anything with the war, nor is it going to mobilize public opinion. “The war certainly does not improve the creditworthiness of the Russian economy.”
In the event of an aggressive action by Russia, the West threatens significant sanctions, especially with an “end” for the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline. US President Joe Biden has already made relevant statements, although Germany has not made it clear. stand. Discussions are also under way in the EU, Britain and the US, targeting Russian banks or other key sectors of the economy. A kind of “nuclear bomb” for the Russian economy is considered the possible exclusion from the international interbank payment system SWIFT, which, however, would have consequences for Moscow’s western trading partners. For the first time, however, the West is threatening to take direct action against oligarchs who maintain privileged relations with the Kremlin.
DW
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