A heat wave much worse than that of 2003 “threatens” the Olympic Games, held this summer in Paris. According to expert scientists, this “disaster scenario” is within the realm of possibility in our world, characterized by global warming, and in fact, they have informed the organizers of “Paris 2024”.

Scientists attempted to calculate what the worst possible heat wave could be over a 15-day period in the Paris Olympics region (July 26-August 11).

“The motivation from the beginning was to start from the observation of the heat wave of 2003, which surprised us all with its scale. And which no one thought was possible to happen”, explains o Pascal Youngfrom Climate and Environment Laboratory (LSCE), who is the lead author of the study published in the journal “Npj Climate and Atmospheric Science».

During the heat wave of 2003, hospitals were overwhelmed by admissions of patients and the tragic toll of the phenomenon was 15,000 dead. For nine consecutive days, Paris experienced temperatures above 35 °C during the day, with minimal cooling at night.

Is a similar or worse heat event possible than the 2003 average? “Temperatures exceeding the 2003 record by around 4 °C” in Ile-de-France are possible, the researchers estimate.

“In 20 years, the climate has changed and the idea was to alert the public authorities that something much worse than 2003 could happen, that it is possible,” Yu emphasizes, adding:

“In the 20th century this record was not broken, but now we can not only reach it, but also surpass it with a fairly high probability.”

When asked by Agence France-Presse, the organizers of the Olympic Games claim that they are “fully aware of the impact that climate change can have on the Games”.

“The heat and extreme weather conditions are a case that we take into account and expect to take the necessary measures as far as possible”, they say.

The organizers, who work with the Météo-France and Santé publique Franceare particularly based on historical data for each location.

For their study, the researchers conducted a worst-case simulation exercise based on climate models particularly used by IPCC (UN-mandated Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) climatologists.

According to the scientists, for such an extreme heat wave to occur, there would have to be a combination of a stable anticyclone and a meteorological phenomenon called a “cold drop”, capable of pumping very hot air from the Sahara towards France.

But this is by no means a weather forecast for next summer. Météo-France for its part only publishes “main trends” over three months, so we’ll have to wait until April to get a fairly vague indication of July.

“We will not know in April if and when there will be heatwaves in July, we will have a tendency towards a similar scenario, below or above normal”, estimate from Météo-France.

The Tokyo Olympics (2021) were the hottest on record since 1952, but with limited capacity after being held without spectators due to travel restrictions implemented to limit the spread of Covid-19.

And for the organization of the Paris Games, the authorities claim that they have planned “specific measures” depending on the sports.

And if for the matches that will be held in closed spaces, things are rather easy with the use of air conditioning, for example, the outdoor activities, possibly “reprogramming” is needed.

“The decision will be taken on a case-by-case basis,” they say, recalling that “these decisions have already been implemented during previous Olympic Games, especially in Tokyo.”