As hopes for a quick end to the war in Ukraine do not materialize, Western powers are investing in defensive armor. The role of drones is decisive.

On the occasion of the two-year anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the head of the Norwegian armed forces, Erik Kristoffersen, told the Oslo newspaper Dagbladet that there is a “window of opportunity, lasting one, two or three years, in which we have to invest even more in defense our armor”.

Political analysts believe that such appeals from the military to European politicians are actually preparing a change of strategy towards Russia. Speaking to DW, German security expert Niko Lange explains that the hope for a quick end to the war in Ukraine has been thwarted by the pressure exerted on the one hand by the arms supplies of Western powers to Ukraine and on the other hand by the imposition sanctions against the Russian economy.

What concerns both the military and the analysts is mainly the lack of ammunition, new weapon systems, as well as the production capabilities in Europe. NATO’s military deterrence capability is closely intertwined with the provision of arms to Ukraine. For example, last year the EU promised to supply Ukraine with one million grenades by March. However, she failed to fulfill her commitment.

Ukrainian artillery is lacking

Gustav Gressel from the think tank European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) writes in a recent analysis: “The West and in particular the Europeans must review their economic regulations in order to create the conditions for a drastic promotion of the production of unmanned aircraft, ammunition, armored combat vehicles and many other weapon systems”.

We are going through the second winter of the war in Ukraine. In their assessments, military personnel and analysts focus on the inferiority of the Ukrainian armed forces in artillery combat against the Russian army. While Moscow covers its deficiencies, even by importing munitions from North Korea, Ukraine is forced to impose drastic restrictions on their use. According to analyst Michael Kofman from the US Center for Naval Analysis (CNA) the ratio of missiles launched today is one Ukrainian to five Russian. More pessimistic estimates speak of a ratio of one to ten.

The decisive role of unmanned aerial vehicles

Despite the apparent shortages in military hardware, the Ukrainian armed forces are also reporting successes against the Russian war machine with targeted airstrikes on Russian radars, military bases and supply routes in Crimea and southern Ukraine.

In an analysis for the US broadcaster CNN in early February, the ousted (as of Thursday) Ukrainian General Valery Zaluzny wrote that “thanks to unmanned systems, such as drones, and other advanced weapons we are able to avoid an engagement in a war trenches, in which Ukraine has no advantage.”

For the 50 or so nations that support the US-led Ukraine, this translates into an urge to procure more high-tech weapons.

According to Nikos Lange, it remains to be seen whether the change in strategy initiated by Western and Ukrainian militaries will be heeded by European politicians, who will ultimately be called upon to ensure the financing of military equipment for Ukraine for the next few years, as and the significant increase in European defense production.

Editor: Stefanos Georgakopoulos