There is still no agreement between the warring parties that could possibly provide for the release of Marwan Barghoutithe most famous Palestinian prisoner, from Israeli prisons, in the framework of the ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas. But earlier this week, senior Hamas official Osama Hamdan already put Barghouti’s name on the list of demands. The now 64-year-old Palestinian politician was sentenced in 2004 to five life sentences and an additional 40 years for planning terrorist attacks with 4 dead Israelisa Greek monk and other attempted terrorist acts.

Charisma and political influence

“Although Marwan Barghouti has removed himself from day-to-day Palestinian politics, his political beliefs are quite well known”, Hugh Lovatt, a researcher at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told DW. In 2021, while in prison, Barghouti created his own list of candidates for the Palestinian parliamentary elections, which were later canceled by Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. In 2017, he led a 40-day hunger strike with over 1,500 inmates in an effort to get longer visiting hours and better access to education. He also published an essay in the American newspaper New York Times and published a book about his experiences in prison.

Barghouti, who is married to lawyer Fatwa Barghouti and has four children, also completed his doctorate from Cairo University while in prison. Sources say his book and PhD were smuggled out of prison one page at a time.

“For many Palestinians, barghouti combines charisma and political influence with credibility as a leadership figure due to his experiences in exilehis imprisonment and his role during the second Intifada,” Simon Engelkes, head of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Ramallah, told Deutsche Welle. A member of the Fatah Central Committee and the Palestinian Legislative Council, he was one of the leaders of the second Intifada, the Palestinian uprising, which lasted from September 2000 to February 2005. “Barghouti is considered the most popular Palestinian politician and a political leader who could overcome the internal division of the Palestinians and unite many”Engelkes believes.

A potential successor to Abbas

His view was recently confirmed in a poll by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Research. If elections were held in December, 55% of Palestinians in the West Bank would vote for Barghouti to succeed unpopular 88-year-old Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas. Ismail Haniyeh, the Qatar-based leader of Hamas, came in second. For its part, Hamas, which has been designated a terrorist organization by Germany, the EU, the US and some Arab states, could benefit from Barghouti’s release in several aspects. It could emerge as an “acceptable political body of national consensus that could in the future forge a reconciliation agreement between Fatah and Hamas,” Hugh Lovatt told DW.

Fatah is the ruling party in the West Bank, while Hamas controls Gaza. In addition, Lovat believes that Hamas wants to demonstrate that it is not only fighting for its own interests, but also for those of other Palestinian factions. “This would further boost the popularity of Hamas itself,” he added. On the other hand, if he were to be released, he “could jeopardize the Palestinian Authority and President Abbas’s position of power and would probably have to make political concessions to Hamas, such as participating in a unity government,” added Simon Engelkes.

A possible release of Marwan Barghouti would not only be supported by Hamas and the Palestinian people. The former head of Israel’s Shin Bet security service, Ami Ayalon, recently told the Israeli newspaper Haaretz that “as part of a comprehensive agreement that will include the return of all hostageswe must release Marwan Barghouti, both because the return of the Israeli hostages would give Israel an “air of victory” in the Gaza waras well as because Marwan is the only Palestinian leader who can be elected and lead a united and legitimate Palestinian leadership down a path of mutually agreed separation from Israel.”

Acceptance but also “blood on his hands”

However, Hugh Lovatt doesn’t see that happening anytime soon. “Never say never, but at present it seems difficult to imagine any Israeli government, especially a hard-right government led by Benjamin Netanyahu, releasing Marwan Barghouti, given that many Israelis consider him a terrorist, with blood on his hands.” Besides, previous attempts to free him had failed. In 2011 Hamas had tried to release him in exchange for the kidnapped Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit. In October 2011 Shalit was released in exchange for 1,027 Palestinian prisoners, including Yahya Sinwar, who has become one of the current leaders of Hamas in Gaza.

For now at least, Simon Engelkes of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation doesn’t see Barghouti being released anytime soon either. “I think it is unlikely that this will happen now, in the context of an exchange of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners,” he told DW. The fact that all these years Barghouti’s “voice” has not been silenced is due to his wife. Last August, Fadwa Barghouti, in a meeting with the Jordanian foreign minister in Amman, announced the launch of an international campaign for the release of her husband, with the slogan “Freedom for Marwan Barghouti, the Mandela of Palestine”, in Europe, Latin America and South Africa, by “solidarity groups”.