Relaxation of measures against Covid in Europe mixes optimism and caution

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​In Italy and Spain, the use of masks outdoors is no longer mandatory. In Austria, students prepare to be unprotected inside classrooms. In France, eating popcorn in a movie theater is once again allowed. In Norway, nightclubs can work with a full house and without a mask

From the strictest to the most liberal, European countries have announced in recent days the relaxation of restrictions implemented to contain the fourth wave of Covid-19 cases, which broke records in the last few days due to the high transmissibility of the omicron variant.

“We are removing almost all measures related to the coronavirus. The pandemic is no longer a major health threat for most of us,” said Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Stoere. The country has 73% of the population fully vaccinated, and 51% with a booster dose.

The Nordics are among the most daring countries. In addition to Norway and Denmark, which had already overturned anti-Covid restrictions, Sweden is following a similar path and has even announced the limitation of free tests only to the most vulnerable groups and as long as they show symptoms.

“I would say that this pandemic, as we know it, has come to an end,” said Swedish Health Minister Lena Hallengren. “It’s not over, but the way we know it, in terms of sudden changes and restrictions, that is.”

A similar thought was signaled by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who announced his intention to bring forward the end of anti-Covid measures from the end of March to the end of this month. In the Netherlands, Health Minister Ernest Kuipers said on Tuesday that the country would reopen sectors such as bars and restaurants on Friday, “joyfully in a new phase”.

Even the most restrained countries try to turn the page. On the eve of the two-year anniversary of the discovery of the first known case of community contamination of the coronavirus in Italy, the Minister of Health proclaimed the beginning of “a new season of Covid”.

“We are in a new era because the ômicron has profoundly changed things and because there is a very high percentage of vaccinated people,” Roberto Speranza said during a meeting of EU Health Ministers in Lyon, France.

Italy has 82% of the population with the first vaccination cycle completed, and 61% of the inhabitants are immunized with the booster dose. Last week, the government released, in addition to outdoor circulation without masks, the reopening of nightclubs – with reduced public capacity and only for those vaccinated or cured.

According to official figures, the worst, in terms of the spread of the disease, seems to be over. According to consolidated data from the European Center for Disease Control and Prevention (ECDC), the peak of new cases of this fourth wave was recorded in the last week of January.

The survey covers official data from 30 European countries. Between January 24th and 30th, the case rate in the previous 14 days reached 3,728 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, after rising for six straight weeks. In early February, the incidence dropped to 3,509/100,000. The ECDC forecast is that the drop could reach 1,418/100,000 this week.

The number of deaths in the same period has changed less and has remained stable for 11 weeks. In early February, the rate was 51.2 per million inhabitants compared to 49.2 per million in early January.

The center describes Europe’s overall epidemiological picture as “highly concerning” despite the declines. “We still see an unprecedented intensity of community transmission in all European countries and in many countries around the world,” says Anastasia Pharris, an infectious disease specialist at ECDC.

“Vaccination remains a key element to reduce the impact of the virus, and every effort must be made to increase adherence to the first cycle of those who have not yet started or who have not completed it. In addition, adults must be offered the dose booster three months later.”

Without commenting on the content of the decisions taken by each government in recent days, the expert says that interventions must be adopted according to local circumstances and ECDC’s recommendations. The problem is that there are disparities among the 30 countries monitored by the center, which helps to explain the difference in pace or intensity in relation to the post-omicron reopening.

In the most recent report, 8 countries, including the Czech Republic, Croatia and Hungary, were in the “very high” attention group; 18 in the “high” range, like Belgium, France and Germany; and another 4 in “moderate”, such as Italy and Spain.

Therefore, Pharris’ recommendation to ensure that the intensity of the omicron circulation continues at manageable levels, without the collapse of sanitary systems, is to maintain non-pharmaceutical measures, i.e. physical distancing, use of masks, good ventilation and isolation. home for the sick.

Many countries, while easing restrictions, have not yet lifted the requirement for vaccination certificates or even the use of masks indoors. This Tuesday (15), for example, the mandatory vaccination pass for workers over 50 years old came into force in Italy. The measure is valid until June 15.

However, given the drop in the number of new cases combined with the more flexible stance of governments and the proximity of summer – which attracts tourists and moves the economy – it is difficult to imagine that very restrictive measures against the virus will last long.

Pharris, however, remains cautious. According to her, although it is speculated that the omicron is responsible for the last big wave of the pandemic, the coronavirus remains unpredictable. “There is still no clear seasonal pattern, it is not possible to accurately predict how the pandemic will evolve, and there is no reason to believe that new variants will not emerge,” she says.

Still according to the expert, even if several areas of Europe show signs that they are moving towards a less acute phase of the health crisis, the change of status from “pandemic” to “epidemic” does not make a virus irrelevant. “Endemic diseases can also cause significant outbreaks and high levels of pressure on health systems. Surveillance and response strategies to deal with Covid-19 are essential.”

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