Concrete walls, barbed wire, sections with new walls and steel barriers: the Rafah crossing between Egypt and the Gaza Strip is about to become inaccessible. Work has already begun and people in Egypt are anxious in anticipation of the announced Israeli army attack on southern Gaza – right behind the wall, on their doorstep.

With the advance of Israeli troops in Rafah, the war is moved right next to Egyptian territory. Concerns are growing in Cairo that many of the 1.5 million Palestinians in Rafah will seek to cross the border into Egypt. And then, if Israeli bullets land on Egyptian soil – even inadvertently – the peace treaty between the two states, which has been in place since 1979, will be severely tested.

When the treaty was signed 45 years ago, after four bloody wars in the Middle East, it was the first time an Arab country recognized Israel – which in turn withdrew from the Sinai Peninsula, which was held by 1967. Although a “cold peace” prevails to this day, the treaty in any case led the two states to a comparatively stable proximity.

Decided to operate in Rafah, Israel

Now the Israeli leadership has no intention of ending the war in Gaza and is determined to attack Rafah. “It is impossible to achieve the war objective of eliminating Hamas while four battalions of the organization are in Rafah,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on February 9, further announcing that he had ordered the military to begin planning the attack – including a way to the evacuation of 1.5 million civilians.

The Israeli Prime Minister’s announcement provoked strong international reactions. The Secretary General of the U.N. Antonio Guterres warned that the consequences of such a development would be “catastrophic”, the French president Macron spoke of a “disaster of new dimensions”, while the US president Joe Biden called for a “credible plan” to protect civilians. Netanyahu, for his part, said last Saturday (February 17) that Israel will not give in to pressure from the international community. “Anyone who wants to block our business in Rafah is basically telling us to ‘Lose the war’.”

The extraordinary situation raises many questions

However, many questions remain open. How will all these people, among whom there are many wounded, sick and children, be transported? Where will the affected move? And how will humanitarian aid be provided to them where they go?

These are questions that concern Cairo as well. In Egypt, a neutral zone has reportedly been formed in which up to 100,000 people can be accommodated in buildings and tents – according to the Sinai Foundation for Human Rights and the Wall Street Journal, this zone will essentially be a huge Palestinian reception camp, which will be surrounded by a seven meter high wall.

However, the head of the State Intelligence Service (SIS), Diaa Rashvan, dismissed the reports, explaining that the belt and the wall had been built long before the war began. And the governor of North Sinai, Mohammed Sousa, explained that it is a “logistics support zone” that facilitates aid deliveries to Gaza by hosting warehouses, truck parking lots and accommodation for drivers. As Sousa also emphasized, no “forced migration” of Palestinians to Egypt will be allowed.

Is peace between Egypt and Israel threatened?

It is reported in diplomatic circles that Cairo has already warned that if Israel seeks in any way to push the Palestinians across the Sinai border, Egypt will consider such a move a violation of the joint peace treaty – further threatening to suspend the treaty. In fact, as it became known on Sunday (February 18), Egypt wants to bring Israel before the International Court of Justice, the highest court of the United Nations, on the charge that its practices in the Palestinian territories violate international law.

Since October there have been signs that the war could soon cross the border: Israeli fire hit an Egyptian outpost and shrapnel from an Israeli tank shell lightly wounded some of the border guards. The Israeli military said it was a mistake and apologized, with Egypt later announcing that Israeli warplanes had “bombed four times” the Rafah crossing.

Egypt and Israel have common interests

Another question that exists concerns the leeway Israel has, without causing irreparable damage to its relations with Egypt. The two states are believed to have confidence in security cooperation on the Gaza border and the Philadelphia Corridor – a narrow 14km strip of land on the border between the Gaza Strip and Egypt, which since 2005 and the withdrawal of Israelis is controlled by about 750 Egyptian border guards.

“Both countries have a long list of common interests,” writes the Israeli think tank INSS. These include “the desire to weaken Hamas in Gaza and demilitarize the Gaza Strip,” as well as to prevent the formation of a “nest of terrorists” in the coastal region that would threaten both states.

The Egyptian side hopes that Israel will similarly perceive the importance of the border. As the Egyptian Foreign Minister, Samih Shoukry, said during his visit to Ljubljana, “Egypt will respect the peace treaty established more than 40 years ago, as long as Israel does the same.”