As the version war over what is happening around Ukraine escalates, the diplomatic row between Russia and the United States escalated on Thursday, after days of Moscow signaling in favor of negotiations.
Vladimir Putin’s government responded after three weeks to the US rejection of the Russian package of demands to stabilize security in Eastern Europe. The letter says the position means Moscow “may take military-technical measures” to defend its interests.
The jargon suggests not a Russian invasion of Ukraine, which President Joe Biden said for the umpteenth time on Thursday could take place “in the next few days”, but actions that will be seen as aggressive by NATO.
Tension was reinforced by Russia’s expulsion of number 2 of the US Embassy in Moscow, Bart Gorman. According to the State Department, “the action was not provoked and we consider it an escalation step. We are considering our response.” The Russian Foreign Ministry declined to comment, preferring to focus on the apparent hacking attack on its website, which went offline.
These are all signs contrary to the spirit of the week so far. Putin continued to build up his military capabilities, which according to the West already number 150,000 troops in various positions around Ukraine.
On Tuesday (15), the Russian announced a withdrawal of part of these forces, and repeated the announcement on Wednesday and Thursday. It didn’t convince NATO: US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said there are clear preparations for a conflict, and alliance chief Jens Stoltenberg again spoke of Russian troop increases.
The situation was exacerbated by Thursday’s early morning bombings at the so-called line of control, the 430 km informal border that separates ethnic Russian separatist forces from the Donbass (eastern Ukraine) from the rest of the country.
Both sides blame each other for the mortar attacks, which are otherwise a common occurrence in the fragile ceasefire in place since 2015. Civil war in the region had erupted the year before, after the Russian-majority region of Crimea was annexed by Putin to prevent Ukraine’s absorption into Western structures after the overthrow of a Kremlin-friendly government.
In Russia, few believe Putin is doing more than pushing, manipulating what he calls Western hysteria to pressure Kiev into giving in on some points. In short, the pattern of aggravation and distention can extend over months. But the risks, of course, exist, especially in eastern Ukraine.
As I said to sheet to analyst Oksana Antonenko of British consultancy Control Risk, Putin seems more interested in keeping a formidable force on hand to say he has the ability to do what the West fears — but wouldn’t do so because he has too much to lose.
To add drama to the script, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken decided to address the United Nations Security Council. On Russian, state and Kremlin-aligned TVs, he has already been compared to Colin Powell, his predecessor who was embarrassed by justifying the 2003 invasion of Iraq in the same forum with false arguments.
In any case, attention turns to the menu of such technical-military measures available to Putin.
There could be the deployment of missiles with nuclear warheads to Russian regions closer to Europe, such as Kaliningrad or Crimea, although experts speculate that this has already occurred. Perhaps even ally Belarus. Or the maintenance or establishment of new military bases.
More daring would be some kind of military reinforcement in allies Venezuela or Cuba, as Russia did not rule out last month. On Wednesday (16), dictator Nicolás Maduro said he intends to expand his military cooperation with Moscow. “Russia is supported by Venezuela in the face of threats from NATO and the Western world,” he said, according to broadcaster Venezolana de Televisión.
This would bring the crisis to Brazil’s neighborhood. According to the commander of the Air Force, Carlos de Almeida Baptista Junior, the Brazilian military is following the case, but they do not believe that anything will happen.
Finally, Putin can recognize the rebel areas and, in a more incisive gesture, send troops to support them in case of conflict with the Ukrainians. It’s a scenario that draws a lot of Russian diplomatic activity, however.
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