The war in Ukraine is significantly affecting major exporting powers in the field of defense industry and technology, as a recent study by the International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) in Stockholm points out. The study compares arms exports in the period 2019-2023 with the corresponding period 2014-2918 and finds “dramatic changes”.

In total international arms trade may have declined by 3.3%, but Europe’s imports have almost doubled, due to the war in Ukraine. Over the past four years, the US has contributed 55% of imports for Europeans, up 30% from 2014-2018. In this way, the Americans have increased their total exports by 17%, supplying weapons to a total of 107 countries around the world. This is another record number.

Ukraine: Increase in imports… 6,600%

Among European countries, Ukraine records increase in arms imports by …6,600%. In the period 2019-2023 it is the fourth country internationally, after India, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Yes, for the year 2023, Ukraine was the country with the most arms imports in the whole world. Of course, in this case the term “imports” is rather misleading as in most cases it is not a sale but a free shipment of weapons to Ukraine with the aim of countering the Russian invasion.

In total the countries with the most arms exports in the last four years were the USA, France, Russia, China and Germany. As SIPRI Institute analyst Peter Wiesemann explains, “some countries that have been Russia’s most important markets for the past two decades, such as China and India, have reduced their orders. Partly because they now produce weapons themselves, partly because they prefer to turn more often to France, the USA or Israel – for technological reasons, but also for political reasons.

French frigate FDI HN, also ordered by Greece – Image: Naval Group

Does this mean that have there been political pressures from the West to reduce the dependence of third countries on Russian exports? “For India and China, we wouldn’t say that this is a reaction to what Russia is doing in Ukraine,” says the Swedish researcher. “In other cases, however, the US and Europe have actually put pressure on countries that have acquired or wished to acquire Russian weapons. We saw this very characteristically in Egypt, which was going to buy Russian fighter jets, but after American pressure withdrew this decision and turned to France for the supply of fighters.

France is number 2 in the world

The list of top exporting powers for 2019-2023 shows a significant change, as France has overtaken Russia to take second place just behind the US. While Russian arms exports fell by 53%, corresponding French exports increased by 47%. According to Peter Wiesemann, a fellow at the SIPRI Institute, this is because France follows a policy with an emphasis on strategic dominance.

“It wants to be able to use military force whenever it deems appropriate without depending on arms imports,” he says. “Therefore a strong military industry is needed, but this is too expensive when not financed through exports. Especially in the last ten years, France has managed to find many customers for its fighter aircraft, the Rafale, but also for a range of other equipment, such as submarines and frigates.”

An interesting fact is that at the moment France’s biggest customer is India, but it also imports huge amounts of weapons from Russia.

German submarines wanted

For Germany there is no significant change in the ranking of the SIPRI Institute. The country remains the fifth largest exporter of defense industry and technology. Its exports have fallen by 14% over the past four years, but this is probably because in previous years Germany has entered into an unusually large number of submarine export deals.

In 2023, however, the export performance of the German defense industry was outstanding. As Peter Wiesemann explains, “the reason is, of course, the military aid to Ukraine, but also other commercial agreements concerning, for example, the supply of submarines to Singapore and frigates to both Israel and Egypt.”