The war of alarmist versions of the crisis in Ukraine reached a paroxysm on Friday, with pro-Russian rebels in the east of the country announcing a withdrawal of civilians because they fear imminent action by Kiev forces against the region.
For Western politicians, this can be the password for a false flag operation, when the adversary promotes an attack or incident designed to create a pretext for retaliation. The reality is more complex, but the leaders of the self-proclaimed People’s Republics of Donetsk and Lugansk poured gasoline on the fire.
“First and foremost, women, children and the elderly will be subject to evacuation. We kindly ask that you listen and make the right decision. Temporary departure will save the life and health of you and your loved ones,” Denis Puchilin wrote in a statement. leader of the Donetsk republic.
He said “Russia’s leadership” has already made available places to receive refugees in the Rostov region, adjacent to the area. This matches the speech of President Vladimir Putin, alongside his ally Aleksandr Lukachenko, who visited him this Friday in the Kremlin. “The situation in Donbass (Eastern Ukraine) is very dangerous,” he said.
On Thursday, accusations were exchanged over mortar bombing. Two people were injured on the Ukrainian side, according to Kiev. This Friday, in a usual pattern in the region, two Kiev soldiers were reportedly shot in a skirmish.
Puchilin said there were signs of an invasion in preparation by Ukrainian forces, which Kiev denied. It is a repetition in microcosm and with an inverted sign of what has been seen in the last two months around Ukraine.
Continuing its campaign to denounce what it also calls the imminent risk of a Russian invasion of Ukraine, the United States now estimates that Moscow has deployed 169,000 to 190,000 troops around its neighbour, nearly double the level recorded at the end of January.
That’s what Ambassador Michael Carpenter said at an emergency meeting of the OSCE (Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe) this Friday (18) in Vienna. “It’s the most significant military deployment in Europe since World War II,” he said.
The statement, called empty alarmism by the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, is in line with the rhetoric of President Joe Biden, who since the beginning of the year has announced an incursion. The Kremlin has never confirmed figures, but since Monday (14) it has announced withdrawals of parts of the troops who participated in military exercises in places like the annexed Crimea.
Carpenter’s speech is consistent with the American tactic so far, of drawing the worst-case scenarios and exposing them as truth in public. On Thursday (17), Secretary of State Antony Blinken exposed to the United Nations Security Council even the options that Vladimir Putin would have to find a pretext and act against Ukraine.
All pass through the east of the country, which has been in a frozen civil war between ethnic Russian separatists backed by Putin and the government in Kiev since 2014, when an uprising toppled the Kremlin-aligned president and the Russian leader annexed Crimea to prevent entry into the country. in the European Union and NATO (western military alliance).
This is where the two rebel areas are located, the so-called republics of Donetsk (2.3 million inhabitants) and Lugansk (1.5 million), namesakes of their main cities.
That the evacuation was arranged with the Russians is evident. It remains to be seen whether Putin is to do what the West says he will do or to just keep the pressure high in the rhetorical dispute and, in the end, take no action and say he has always promised to do so.
If he wants to act, however, he has at hand the request, also stitched together with the Kremlin, from the Russian Parliament for Putin to recognize the republics. This would pave the way for limited, “on-demand” intervention, mandatory quotes. That would put Ukraine on the wall, not least because the West only promises economic sanctions against Moscow if something happens.
This option buries the diplomatic asset of the Minsk Accords, which in 2015 drew a precarious ceasefire and the interpretation of a federalized Ukraine — which in practice would keep the country out of NATO, Putin’s explicit strategic objective. Therefore, it is doubtful what will happen.
In his meeting with Lukachenko, the Russian further reinforced the structures of the so-called State of the Union, a geopolitical plan he encouraged that provides for unification with Belarus. The Belarusian dictator has always avoided this to maintain power, but since he turned to the Kremlin when he was cornered by street protests after a rigged election in 2020, things have changed.
Both leaders said again that the joint military exercises in Belarus, seen as a harbinger of an attack also to the north against Kiev, will end on Sunday (20), as scheduled. And that they are still waiting for a negotiated way out of the imbroglio that does not involve more Western sanctions.
