THE announcement of the final results of the Portuguese parliamentary elections it is expected to take place today after the counting of foreign votes is completed. At the same time, the leader of the center-right Democratic Alliance (AD) Luis Montenegro, winner of the election, will be received by the president of the Republic Marcelo Rebelo de Souza to complete the round of consultations with the leaders of Portugal’s political parties and assign the mandate to form a government.

According to the results so far, the Democratic Alliance is prevailing with a small lead over the Socialist Party (PS) which has been in power for the past eight years.

The Democratic Alliance secured 29.5% of the vote and at least 79 seats out of a total of 230. As a result, the 51-year-old lawyer is far from a parliamentary majority of 116 MPs, but says he is ready to form a minority government.

Rise of the extreme right

Under the weight of the surprise resignation of Prime Minister Antonio Costa, who quit political life after his name was mentioned in an investigation into undue influence, the Socialist Party moved into second place with 28.7% and at least 77 seats.

The far-right party Chega (Enough) strengthened its position as Portugal’s third political force, quadrupling its parliamentary strength from 12 to at least 48 MPs and a score of 18% of the vote.

“The fall of the socialist government was predictable, but not the entrenchment of the center-right vote,” comments Antonio Costa Pinto, an analyst at the Institute of Social Sciences of the University of Lisbonne (ICS). “We didn’t expect Chega’s reinforcement to block the Democratic Alliance’s reinforcement to such an extent.”

Chega president Andre Ventura entered parliament as the only far-right MP in 2019, when he founded his anti-establishment party promising to “cleanse Portugal” of corruption and immigration.

Ventura, 41, reiterated on Monday that he wants to ally with the moderate right to form a stable majority, while threatening to turn against the Democratic Alliance if it refuses to start negotiations.

“Condemned to negotiate”

Luiz Montenegro, although he has not spoken since election night, has repeatedly stated that he will refuse to rule the country with the support of the far right.

The new leader of the Socialist Party, Pedro Nuno Santos, gave him a helping hand, however, saying yesterday that he was ready to vote on a budget amendment to increase the salaries of police teachers, nurses and judicial officers. He warned, however, that it was “virtually impossible” for Socialist MPs to vote in favor of the 2025 budget.

In Portugal, the government does not need a vote of confidence in parliament to take office, so the next prime minister’s first test will be the budget debate next autumn.

“It will be a government doomed to negotiation, because that is the fate of minority governments”, but this does not mean that, in the short term, it will be unstable, because “none of the political actors has an interest in causing a crisis”, explains Antonio Costa Pinto.

In case of deadlock, the president of Portugal will be called upon to play the role of mediator. Besides, for the next six months, he does not have the possibility to dissolve the government and call elections.