The process for Turkey’s local elections is officially over, expected to be a barometer of Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s popularity as the battle is crucial both for control of Istanbul and Ankara and for the future of the country.

They came to the polls of the municipal elections in the morning approximately 61.5 million Turkish voters to elect 1,393 mayors and thousands of municipal councilors as well as local lords of municipal districts and villages.

The polls opened in the eastern eprovinces at 7:00 pm and closed at 4:00 pm, while in the western provinces voting lasted from 8:00 am to 5:00 pm.

Earlier, Mr Ekrem Imamoglu and Murat Kurum they exercised their right to vote with the current mayor of Istanbul leaving clear points for the security of the conduct of the elections calling on the citizens to protect the process.

In particular, Imamoglu asked the citizens to protect the ballot box and their vote: “Voting is a sacred right in our democracy. This right must be protected. The rules regarding the protection of this right are clear, but unfortunately, since there are deficiencies in this matter in Turkey, this matter is done in cooperation with the citizens.”

For his part, Murat Kurum expressed his belief that today was a celebration for all citizens of Istanbul and thanked President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for his trust.

The importance of the elections was pointed out by Recep Tayyip Erdogan coming to vote, speaking of an election that will mark a new era for the country.

“We recently held the parliamentary and presidential elections. Today we are holding local elections. These two elections tired our nation, and they tired us. Because we had a very intense campaign. I hope that the local governments will have a good result for our country and nation. This election will usher in a new era in our country in a short period. On the one hand, the parliamentary and presidential elections, and on the other, the local government elections, we hope will lead to the beginning of a new era, a new century in our country. I hope it happens,” Erdogan said.

The battle for Constantinople

The elections for the municipality of Istanbul, the largest city that defines for many the economic dynamics of Turkey, are held according to analysts between two men. As the New York Times characteristically reports, one that is on the ballot and another that is not.

The first is current mayor Ekrem Imoglou, a promising opposition politician who managed an upset victory in 2019 and is widely seen as a potential presidential candidate.

The second is President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who served as mayor of Istanbul decades ago and is seeking to return Istanbul to the control of the ruling Justice and Development Party.

The result will be decided by today’s municipal elections, which will in many ways shape the political future of Turkey.

A victory for Mr. Erdogan’s party that allowed him to regain political and economic influence in the administration of Turkey’s largest city, further strengthening a defector that critics accuse of leading the country toward autocracy. However, a victory for the incumbent mayor could regroup the anti-Erdogan opposition and make Imamoglu a presidential contender in the next election in 2028.

“These elections will determine the nature of the political race in Turkey for years to come,” said Sinan Ulgen, director of Edam, an Istanbul-based research organization.

The election comes amid a protracted cost-of-living crisis that has seen the value of Turkey’s currency sink and many people see their incomes drop. They also follow last May’s presidential and parliamentary elections that gave Erdogan another term in office, dashing the hopes of a coalition of opposition parties that had joined forces to oust him.

The loss of the opposition hurt its morale and the coalition collapsed. However, many opposition voters now see Imamoglu as the most likely to beat Erdogan’s party and be Turkey’s next president.

“If Imamoglu wins Istanbul again, people will believe that the opportunity to defeat Erdogan is not lost,” said Ceda Demiralp, a political science professor at Isik University in Istanbul.

In these elections, all eyes are on Istanbul, given its size and political and economic importance.

Istanbul, home to some 16 million people and straddling the Bosphorus between Europe and Asia, generates much of Turkey’s economic wealth. The metropolitan municipality has approximately 90,000 employees, many of whom work in municipal enterprises whose managers are appointed by the mayor. All this gives local lords important to reward supporters with municipal jobs and contracts.

The struggle is also personal. Erdogan, 70, grew up in Istanbul, where his father worked as a ferry captain. His own political career took a leap forward when he was elected mayor of the city from 1994 to 1998. Many residents praised his administration for focusing on quality of life issues: cleaning up polluted roads and waterways and expanding running water networks.

Erdogan often speaks of his love for Istanbul, whose rich history, cosmopolitan elite and booming tourism sector make it Turkey’s crown jewel.

To take back the city, Erdogan has nominated Murat Kurum, a former minister of urban areas and environment in his government. Erdogan and current MP in his party.

Kurum, 47, has positioned himself as a technocrat who will expand services and transform Istanbul’s neighborhoods to protect residents from potential earthquakes, a concern in a city that seismologists warn will soon be hit.

We imagine an Istanbul where none of our households would be afraid of earthquakes anymore,” he said at a large election rally last Sunday on the runway of an old airport. “All our homes will be safe.”

Turkey’s next national election is expected at the end of Erdogan’s term in 2028, but some Turks expect him to seek to stay in power longer. He is currently serving the second of two presidential terms allowed by the Constitution. But if he calls early elections that would allow him to run for another term or he could seek to change the Constitution.