In view of the American elections, which are expected to be of decisive importance for geopolitical developments, the concerns of European leaders have intensified before the real possibility of Donald Trump’s victory, which will affect the cooperation and agenda to date.

In this context, European diplomats in Washington are looking for communication channels in order to gain access to associates of the former president and decode Trump’s real intentions, reports CNN.

In face-to-face meetings at private clubs, hotels, embassies and think tanks in Washington, diplomats are asking questions about Trump’s political intentions and potential partner choices, informing the leaders of their countries of origin.

At the center are both the creation of protective barriers for NATO and securing support for Ukraine in the war with Russia.

Diplomatic contacts currently include former senior Trump administration officials, including former Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, national security advisers Robert O’Brien and Keith Kellogg, as well as top national security adviser security of former Vice President Mike Pence.

Ambassadors from larger countries and those who have been in Washington for several years have easier access to Trump’s circle, compared to ambassadors who are newcomers and those from smaller countries.

The activity ahead of November’s presidential election stands in stark contrast to the lead up to the 2016 election, when most diplomats assumed Hillary Clinton would win and made little effort to reach out to Trump allies or Republican foreign policy circles.

Now, they learned a basic lesson.

“We’re not that nervous because we know that with Trump it’s all about relationships,” said a veteran European diplomat who has been in Washington since the Trump administration. “We are working on them and saying in the capital that the Prime Minister’s office needs to create a personal relationship with Trump.”

It’s unclear how much real influence some of those contacts still have with Trump and his staff, CNN reports.

USA, Europe and NATO

Back in Europe, officials from NATO and the European Union are working to bolster support for Ukraine in anticipation of a possible Trump administration that is expected to be less supportive. According to sources, these efforts have been planned for a long time, but Trump’s rise in the polls makes them imperative.

The NATO Secretary General has moved to create an Alliance fund of about $100 billion over the next five years aimed at channeling money into Ukraine. Those funds would be drawn specifically from alliance members as a way to secure a base of support ahead of a possible second Trump term.

In Brussels, EU officials are considering how to use the Russian Central Bank’s $300 billion in assets that have been frozen in the West since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. Specifically, they are considering how to direct the interest that has accrued directly to Ukraine. The move would require the EU to reach an agreement on how Ukraine could use the funds, whether for military spending or reconstruction. The EU passed a law earlier this year freezing profits from Russian central bank funds, which US officials endorsed.

In another sign of NATO countries trying to open channels of communication with Trump, British Foreign Secretary David Cameron met with Trump at the former president’s Mar-a-Lago club on Monday night.

Cameron’s trip to South Florida came as the former prime minister traveled to Washington to meet Foreign Secretary Anthony Blinken. A UK government spokesman called it “standard practice” for engagement between ministers and opposition candidates from partner countries.

The meeting was arranged after the UK was approached by Trump’s staff, sources familiar with the planning said.

Cameron and Trump discussed NATO defense spending, the upcoming US and UK elections, Brexit and “an end to the killing of Ukraine?”, according to the former president’s staff.

Cameron declined to go into details of the meeting, but told reporters he conveyed to the former president that supporting Ukraine is “an investment in US security” and “good for American jobs”.

Stoltenberg “turns a blind eye” to the Republicans

When NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg visited Washington in January, he gave a speech on the future of NATO at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative Republican foreign policy bastion think tank founded in Washington.

The site was chosen by Stoltenberg’s team in an effort to reach out to Republicans, given the likelihood of Trump winning in November and amid concerns about his continued commitment to NATO, CNN reports.

The speech, which emphasized NATO’s collective strength ahead of its 75th anniversary this summer, was well received, the sources said.

Stoltenberg advocated continued support for Ukraine, but also noted that he understands the imperative for the US to urgently address the country’s border issue. The statement was interpreted as an acknowledgment of Republican priorities.

“He’s not blaming anybody because he thinks we should handle this and then move on to Ukraine,” Coates said, reflecting on how Stoltenberg’s speech nodded at a top Republican priority.

At a political rally, Trump said he would tell Russia to “do whatever the hell it wants” to any NATO country that doesn’t pay enough to the defense alliance. The comments sent shivers down the spine of NATO members,

NATO members are well aware that Trump would push every member state to contribute to the 2% spending, but such aggressive rhetoric that effectively undermines Article 5 was troubling.

The comments raised alarm among European diplomats about exactly what Trump meant.

“We’re getting a lot of calls from ambassadors, we know what they’re doing, they’re gathering information and trying to find out what will happen if Trump comes back,” said a former Trump administration official who has had about 30 meetings with European diplomats in Washington.

Outbursts of anger

According to reports, Trump officials urged some of the diplomats not to take Trump literally after his comments about NATO.

“It’s just campaign rhetoric, it’s not what he really believes,” a European diplomat said, describing what they were told.

But they were broadly told that meeting the 2% spending target would be non-negotiable.
On the issue of Ukraine funding, European diplomats are expected to closely monitor Trump’s meeting with Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson on Friday.

Some foreign diplomats have been told that Trump’s plan to end the war in Ukraine aims to bring the two sides to the negotiating table to reach an agreement to end the war.

If Trump wins in November, he is likely to contact Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky the day after the election or the day after the inauguration to begin coordinating talks, a source told CNN.

Trump would likely use US military aid to Ukraine as leverage to bring both sides to the table, according to the same source.

Europeans worry that following Trump’s lead might mean Ukraine loses some ground, but the ultimate goal would be to end the loss of life.

“If Ukraine wants continued aid, they need to sit down and negotiate, and if Russia doesn’t want us to give massive amounts of new support to Ukraine, then they need to sit down and negotiate,” the same source said. “That doesn’t mean we’re going to give Ukraine or Putin everything they want.”